The up af­ter the down!

The Kurdish Globe - - NEWS - By Swara Kadir

Is the eco­nomic re­ces­sion that is fac­ing Iraq and Kur­dis­tan end­ing soon? What are the in­di­ca­tors of that?

There is the down­side. The eco­nomic de­pres­sion has been a se­ri­ous one. The Iraqi bud­get deficit is close to 40 bil­lion dol­lars. Kur­dis­tan hasn't been re­ceiv­ing its bud­get share from the cen­tral Iraqi gov­ern­ment for al­most a year. To make mat­ters even worse the ISIS showed up and geared the whole coun­try's econ­omy to­wards big mil­i­tary ex­pen­di­tures.

What is the up­side? There are cer­tain in­di­ca­tors that show the de­pres­sion is com­ing to an end. Crude oil prices are slowly but surely creep­ing up reach­ing $65 dol­lars per bar­rel for Light Brent Crude Oil. The Kur­dish-Iraqi gov­ern­ment re­la­tions are im­prov­ing af­ter the new Iraqi P.M was ap­pointed. There is a pos­si­bil­ity that Iraq will re­ceive a big loan from one of the in­ter­na­tional banks of the world which should re­duce the bud­get deficit.

Is the econ­omy go­ing to re­cover fast or slowly? As there is no crys­tal ball to gaze into, there is no sure an­swer too! Hav­ing said that in my per­sonal opin­ion, it's go­ing to take a while to re­turn to the golden years of post-Sad­dam econ­omy. It very much de­pends on the over­all se­cu­rity sit­u­a­tion in Iraq.

The fu­ture of ISIS is closely linked to the coun­try’s econ­omy too. If the Mo­sul of­fen­sive is a suc­cess­ful one and ISIS is rooted out quickly from this ma­jor city, then things will def­i­nitely go up. For­eign in­vestors and out­side in­vest­ment will re­turn.

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