The up after the down!
Is the economic recession that is facing Iraq and Kurdistan ending soon? What are the indicators of that?
There is the downside. The economic depression has been a serious one. The Iraqi budget deficit is close to 40 billion dollars. Kurdistan hasn't been receiving its budget share from the central Iraqi government for almost a year. To make matters even worse the ISIS showed up and geared the whole country's economy towards big military expenditures.
What is the upside? There are certain indicators that show the depression is coming to an end. Crude oil prices are slowly but surely creeping up reaching $65 dollars per barrel for Light Brent Crude Oil. The Kurdish-Iraqi government relations are improving after the new Iraqi P.M was appointed. There is a possibility that Iraq will receive a big loan from one of the international banks of the world which should reduce the budget deficit.
Is the economy going to recover fast or slowly? As there is no crystal ball to gaze into, there is no sure answer too! Having said that in my personal opinion, it's going to take a while to return to the golden years of post-Saddam economy. It very much depends on the overall security situation in Iraq.
The future of ISIS is closely linked to the country’s economy too. If the Mosul offensive is a successful one and ISIS is rooted out quickly from this major city, then things will definitely go up. Foreign investors and outside investment will return.