Racing Ahead

derby preview

Ben Morgan looks at the great race and picks a 14-1 shot

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The Derby is said to be the greatest equine test a horse can face. A gruelling 1m 4f around an undulating Epsom track where the need for balance and tactical speed combined with stamina is vital. Not many horses have such a combinatio­n of traits and therefore there is rarely a ‘bad’ Derby winner.

The exceptiona­l set of circumstan­ces we find ourselves in means we are going to have to see an equal amount of skill from trainers as we are from the horses. There has been plenty of time for most trainers to get a run into their horses and it may turn out that Royal Ascot has actually proved a stepping stone for our Classic winners this year. Trainers have had to change their plans, probably, more than once this season and it will be a fantastic training feat from whoever wins the race.

This year’s event, in my view, is one of the most open editions in recent years and I would not be surprised if we saw a repeat of last year’s race where we had four spreadeagl­ed across the track at the line.

At the head of the market we have Kameko who was an impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Andrew Balding has made no secret as to what regard he holds this horse in and such praise combined with on the track results means he is a force to be reckoned with. The question is the trip. Will he get it?

He certainly looks balanced enough to handle Epsom and he clearly has the speed but the big question is the distance. He was powerful through the line at Newmarket but that doesn’t necessaril­y mean he will get another four furlongs run at a breakneck speed.

No one will really know if he will get it but I’m of the opinion that he won’t quite stay and that he may turn out to be a bit of a ‘Roaring Lion’ and specialise over 10f.

Next up in the betting is English

King for Ed Walker. His trainer has longed for a Group 1 horse to come his way and you would like to think this lad should develop into one at some point. WIll he do it in the Derby? I don’t think so personally although it was hard not to be impressed with his Lingfield win albeit the bare form doesn’t amount to much. He travelled a dream throughout and never had to get out of third gear which was pretty impressive.

But, he isn’t going to win the Derby in third gear and I would have liked to have seen him in the deep end where he has to find and dig deep before I go backing him for Epsom glory at 10-3.

It’s been a while since Saeed Bin Suroor has had a horse good enough

to contest the Blue Riband event but he looks to have a genuine contender in the shape of Military March. He ran a super trial for this race in the Guineas where it was pretty clear that the Derby had been the plan all along. He looks sure to benefit from this step up in trip and has the form in the book to be competitiv­e here.

However, I learned a lesson a few years ago having spent a good few seasons trying to rewrite the rule book – and that was to never discount Aidan O’Brien. The man is a genius. It took me a few years to figure out/appreciate the Ballydoyle system but now I do, it has served me so well. The man trained five of the first six home in last year’s Derby and just has that knack of producing these horses on the big day.

Over Lockdown I spent a good few hours trying to find some ante post bets and I became fascinated by MOGUL and the hype around him.

He had been spoken about being a Derby horse since his first start last year and since then the hype has only built. He disappoint­ed slightly in the Vertem Futurity at Newcastle but that was easily forgiven given the circumstan­ces and a lot was expected of him ahead of his return at Ascot. I, being someone who holds plenty of antepost bets on him for the Derby, was anticipati­ng him to come on for the run enormously after listening to Aidan O’Brien in the run up. I even tipped and backed Pyledriver against him, but, make no mistake, at the end of the King Edward Vll Stakes I was sure this horse would be bang there in the Derby.

It was purely a prep run for Epsom and if you rewatch the race you can see the exact moment when Mogul’s petrol tank emptied and there is no shame in that. Bookmakers weren’t impressed however as they pushed him out to 14-1 and at that price I think he is one of the bets of the season. His full brother Japan and his sister Secret Gesture came close to gaining Epsom glory so he is clearly bred for the job and it’s a question of can he make it third time lucky for his dam Shasteye? I certainly think so.

His stablemate Russian Emperor is his biggest danger in my eyes as his gutsy Hampton Court win proved he will probably excel over this mile and half trip. Even after that win, he hasn’t really been spoken about as a Derby contender such is the hype in Ballydoyle around Mogul. But he has his chance that is for certain and I think he will relish the extra two furlongs. I can see him running into a place if connection­s decide to put him in after two hard runs.

The aforementi­oned Pyledriver would be an interestin­g runner but I think his best chance of Classic glory could come at Doncaster in the St Leger.

Sir Michael Stoute always tends to have one for the Derby and there has been plenty of talk about Highest Ground through the winter and he has apparently been working well down in Newmarket. He looks to be going straight here so fitness would have to be taken at face value but he is a nice price if you like an unexposed Stoute horse. 1) Mogul

2) Russian Emperor 3) Military March

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Russian Emperor
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