JLP ahead but PNP closing fast
AS THE night of November 28 eases into the early morning of the next day, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) is banking on its organisational readiness, significant embers remaining of the fire of February 25, and its hold on the state machinery to hugely reverse the People’s National Party’s (PNP) 152 electoral divisions and increase its 75.
I am not getting the sense that the people most likely to vote on Monday will be using the JLP administration’s most-spoken-of ‘policy success’, that of keeping the macroeconomy on an even keel and heading slowly in the right direction as a key judgement.
There has been a visible uptick in jobs in private construction, and this tells me that those in the middle and upper middle class are using credit, making the banks happy, and stimulating the economy by providing site jobs from $1,500 per day up to the level of where the boss starts to bawl.
The few who will turn out tomorrow (probably low 26 per cent to a high of 36 per cent) will do so more on the basis that they are diehard supporters of their party than they give two flying figs that garbage has not been collected in two weeks or that the gully stinks. But if the middle class sits this one out as usual, and there is room for optimism among them, and the business class has no reason to frown, all of those social gears may just provide for the JLP the interlocking slots that will put it over the edge and win the elections. But with the surprise of polls done not published, it is very difficult to ‘guesstimate’ the seat breakdown, except to say the Kingston and St Andrew Corporation will be a keener contest than the many outside of the Kingston Metropolitan Area, and conventional wisdom (does the concept still exist?) supports the idea that the JLP has exuded confidence throughout the campaign, while the PNP seems forced into quiet mode. If crime concerns should somehow enter the judgement, the JLP could suffer. On the other hand, core supporters of the JLP and the