Wetang’ula could join Mudavadi and Gideon
LAST weekend’s political activity has created considerable apprehension within Cord. There are rising fears that the centre can no longer hold, precipitating deep-seated anxiety that a split is imminent. The pronouncements made by the principals during their separate weekend rallies are causing jitters within the opposition coalition support base. All eyes have turned to Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula, whose insistence that Raila pulls out of the race looks like the final blow in the relationship between the three. Wetang’ula has four options. Option 1: Pulling out of Cord and running fast into the open welcoming arms of the Jubilee Party. But there really is no option here for the senator from Bungoma. He shouldn’t even contemplate this option. What would he get in return if he went there? Nothing – because all the spoils have been shared. In fact, already, Eugene Wamalwa is on board. Similarly, Senator Boni Khalwale, who has emerged as his most likely ally, wouldn’t approve of such a move and there is a risk that Weta could become isolated if he as much as openly contemplated taking that route.
Option 2: Defecting from Cord and going it alone. This is an attractive prospect for him, only that it is too expensive and it may end up in tragic failure.
Option 3: Alongside Kalonzo Musyoka, walkout of Cord and launch their own bid in 2017. This remains Wetang’ula’s most attractive prospect. They could reach out to Kanu’s Gideon Moi to make a formidable team. This is possible because there is considerable disenchantment in the Rift Valley arising from William Ruto’s inability to involve all in decision-making in the region. They could rope in Musalia Mudavadi as well. But again there could be the challenge of who between him and Mudavadi should lead the onslaught. Because of seniority, Mudavadi may want to get the flag easily. But Wetang’ula would have left a Raila who commands far more votes and settled for a candidate who brings far less to the table.
Assuming they gang up and Raila also goes it alone in ODM, the outcome is likely to be voter apathy in regions that the opposition stands to reap maximum votes from.
Option 4: Wetang’ula sticks in Cord. But, in view of his recent pronouncements, this looks like an increasingly tall order. He has been caustic in his attacks on Raila and, whatever else anyone says, this is has an adverse effect on their relationship.