We­tang’ula could join Mu­davadi and Gideon

The Star (Kenya) - - Politics - BY MARTIN ANDATI Andati is a po­lit­i­cal an­a­lyst

LAST week­end’s po­lit­i­cal ac­tiv­ity has cre­ated con­sid­er­able ap­pre­hen­sion within Cord. There are ris­ing fears that the cen­tre can no longer hold, pre­cip­i­tat­ing deep-seated anx­i­ety that a split is im­mi­nent. The pro­nounce­ments made by the prin­ci­pals dur­ing their sep­a­rate week­end ral­lies are caus­ing jit­ters within the op­po­si­tion coali­tion sup­port base. All eyes have turned to Ford Kenya leader Moses We­tang’ula, whose in­sis­tence that Raila pulls out of the race looks like the fi­nal blow in the re­la­tion­ship be­tween the three. We­tang’ula has four op­tions. Op­tion 1: Pulling out of Cord and run­ning fast into the open wel­com­ing arms of the Ju­bilee Party. But there re­ally is no op­tion here for the se­na­tor from Bungoma. He shouldn’t even con­tem­plate this op­tion. What would he get in re­turn if he went there? Noth­ing – be­cause all the spoils have been shared. In fact, al­ready, Eu­gene Wa­malwa is on board. Sim­i­larly, Se­na­tor Boni Khal­wale, who has emerged as his most likely ally, wouldn’t ap­prove of such a move and there is a risk that Weta could be­come iso­lated if he as much as openly con­tem­plated tak­ing that route.

Op­tion 2: De­fect­ing from Cord and go­ing it alone. This is an at­trac­tive prospect for him, only that it is too ex­pen­sive and it may end up in tragic fail­ure.

Op­tion 3: Along­side Kalonzo Musyoka, walk­out of Cord and launch their own bid in 2017. This re­mains We­tang’ula’s most at­trac­tive prospect. They could reach out to Kanu’s Gideon Moi to make a for­mi­da­ble team. This is pos­si­ble be­cause there is con­sid­er­able dis­en­chant­ment in the Rift Val­ley aris­ing from William Ruto’s in­abil­ity to in­volve all in de­ci­sion-mak­ing in the re­gion. They could rope in Musalia Mu­davadi as well. But again there could be the challenge of who be­tween him and Mu­davadi should lead the on­slaught. Be­cause of se­nior­ity, Mu­davadi may want to get the flag eas­ily. But We­tang’ula would have left a Raila who com­mands far more votes and set­tled for a can­di­date who brings far less to the ta­ble.

As­sum­ing they gang up and Raila also goes it alone in ODM, the out­come is likely to be voter ap­a­thy in re­gions that the op­po­si­tion stands to reap max­i­mum votes from.

Op­tion 4: We­tang’ula sticks in Cord. But, in view of his re­cent pro­nounce­ments, this looks like an in­creas­ingly tall or­der. He has been caus­tic in his at­tacks on Raila and, what­ever else any­one says, this is has an ad­verse ef­fect on their re­la­tion­ship.

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