Here comes Pres­i­dent Trump

The Star (Kenya) - - News Business - Aly-khan is a fi­nan­cial an­a­lyst ALY KHAN SATCHU

Don­ald Trump won the US elec­tion all ends up and for the first time since 1928 won the Pres­i­den­tial vote, the Se­nate, the House and will de­cide the Supreme Court’s com­po­si­tion. It is a breath-tak­ing win espe­cially when you con­sider that Trump was an in­sur­gent can­di­date and his Make Amer­ica Great Again move­ment sim­i­larly an in­sur­gent move­ment. Trump con­founded the poll­sters and the tra­di­tional me­dia echo cham­ber and was ranked a rank out­sider at 4-1 in a two horse race just a few short hours be­fore the fi­nal re­sult was known. The re­sult in the US mim­icked the Brexit re­sult and what is clear to me is that we are watch­ing a pop­ulist wave or zeit­geist (some have char­ac­terised it as a ‘’white­lash’’) which has now swept the United King­dom and the US and has Italy (where Mat­teo Renzi has called for a Ref­er­en­dum), France (where Marine Le Pen is the most pop­u­lar politi­cian by a street) and the Nether­lands all in its crosshairs.

Comic-turned-politi­cian Beppe Grillo, co-founder of Five Star, said

“This is the de­fla­gra­tion of an epoch. It’s the apoc­a­lypse of this in­for­ma­tion sys­tem, of the TVs, of the big news­pa­pers, of the in­tel­lec­tu­als, of the jour­nal­ists.”

And this is an­other im­por­tant point, tra­di­tional me­dia has lost its po­si­tion of con­trol. It’s been up­ended by the in­ter­net which al­lowed in­sur­gent pol­i­tics to broad­cast over the top.

Re­turn­ing to Pres­i­dent-elect Trump who de­ployed lin­guis­tic war­fare with dev­as­tat­ing ef­fect. The names he gave his op­po­nents — Crooked Hil­lary, Lyin’ Ted, Lit­tle Marco, ‘Lowen­ergy’ Jeb — were dev­as­tat­ing.

The open ques­tion now is how many of his cam­paign prom­ises will he ful­fill and which ones be­cause on a con­tin­uum they are some se­ri­ous out­lier prom­ises. The US Stock mar­ket slumped by its big­gest sin­gle per­cent­age drop in the pre-mar­ket on Wed­nes­day be­fore tak­ing back the en­tire pre­cip­i­tous fall and clos­ing at a fresh all time high by the end of the day. The cat­a­lyst for that spec­tac­u­lar re­cov­ery was Trump’s vic­tory speech which many took to sig­nal a pivot. The speech was con­cil­ia­tory and the flavour was cap­tured in com­ments Trump made when he met with Pres­i­dent Obama

US Pres­i­dent-elect Don­ald Trump has said it was a “great hon­our” to meet Pres­i­dent Barack Obama for tran­si­tion talks at the White House.

Mr Obama said he was “en­cour­aged” by their “ex­cel­lent” and “wide-rang­ing” con­ver­sa­tion, last­ing over an hour.

Ian Brem­mer of Eura­sia Group opined that the Trump vic­tory was “the most pro­found do­mes­tic po­lit­i­cal tran­si­tion of my life­time.”

“There are three as­pects of Amer­i­can lead­er­ship that will be af­fected by the Trump ad­min­is­tra­tion and the grow­ing geopo­lit­i­cal re­ces­sion: the United States’ role as world po­lice­man, ar­chi­tect of global trade, and cheer­leader of global val­ues.”

I am a Seller of Ian Brem­mer’s rather hy­per­bolic cri­tique. Putting a Stop-Loss into play with the Syr­ian rebels (who are a bunch of ne’er-do-wells and paid mer­ce­nar­ies), reach­ing out to Vladimir Putin in­di­cate a trend-change in the way the US en­gages with the rest of the World strikes me as an en­tirely sen­si­ble mid course cor­rec­tion. As Trump has in­di­cated China is the main ad­ver­sary and its dif­fi­cult to un­der­stand why the US was seek­ing to send Vladimir into Xi Jin­ping’s ready em­brace. To tri­an­gu­late China, the US needs Rus­sia on its side and not on China’s. There­fore, I see Trump play­ing a Ron­ald Rea­gan Game.

From an eco­nomic and trade per­spec­tive, I ex­pect Trump to be much more ag­gres­sive with China. I think the QE [Quan­ti­ta­tive Eas­ing] con­sen­sus is now a busted Flush. Re­mem­ber a vast swathe of the pro-Brexit and pro-Trump camps were the older white folks who have seen their sav­ings evap­o­rate in the world of neg­a­tive in­ter­est rates. This is the point. They want a re­turn on their sav­ings and Theresa May and Trump get that. The bond mar­kets get it as well. The US 30- year yield surged 32 ba­sis points higher last week which is the big­gest weekly rise in seven years. There is more to come as the cost of money is nor­malised.

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