What does violent geographic expansion mean?
Ihave been to two countries that were recently struck by violence - Paris and Somalia. No sooner had we left the Somali capital Mogadishu after concluding a humanitarian mission, suicide bombers blew up the hotel we stayed in, killing and injuring many people, including the Somali state minister who had escorted us during the visit. However, thanks to Allah that he is safe now.
As soon as we left Paris after taking part in the UNESCO’s general conference, unprecedented terrorist attacks claimed the lives of over 120 innocent civilians and the numbers are likely to increase. A few days earlier, a Russian commercial flight outbound from Sharm Al-Sheikh in Egypt was ‘shot’ down, killing all its passengers. At the same time, an explosion in southern Beirut killed and injured many people.
What do we deduce from this geographically diverse violence? Were they synchronized or just coincided to be so? With the exception of Somalia, Sharm Al-Sheikh, Paris and Beirut have direct links with Syria, and less directly to both Iraq and even Somalia, because a radical group there has recently declared allegiance to IS.
Naturally enough, there are special objective reasons in each country. Yet, viewing these incidents as timely separate would not be useful to comprehend what is going to happen next. They were all apparently timed with what seems to be more serious political movement and action amongst Arabs and non-Arabs; neighbors and overseas. They look more serious this time because all parties started sensing how blocked the horizon of suggested solutions was because of political exhaustion in addition to the high useless cost of such endeavors.
If this political movement succeeds, as I mentioned eight months ago, the first victim would be IS, and it already seems that military operations tend to impose more restrictions on IS. Consequently, we have to predict that the more pressure piled on IS, the more it would tend to increase its terrorist political violent acts against softer targets like normal civilian congregations with the aim of spreading terror and making concerned parties sense IS abilities to take the battle into their own countries.
IS mainly nourishes on disagreements amongst concerned parties and once they agree, though this may seem difficult and complicated, IS will be first to be affected. In order to symbolically prove this disagreement, countries claiming to be fighting IS officially use six names to describe it, and I do hope the seventh will not pop up because IS will have SEVEN LIVES then!