Why Trump has al­ready lost

Lesotho Times - - International -

NEW YORK — When Kellyanne Conway took the reins of Don­ald Trump’s cam­paign in mid-au­gust, she looked around at how to ex­pand his vot­ing base. Mi­nori­ties looked un­likely to vote for Trump, and he al­ready had white men. The best group to tar­get, she found, was white women.

Conway, who wrote a book, What Women Re­ally Want, with Demo­cratic poll­ster Celinda Lake in 2005, was the ideal per­son to achieve that: She has long fo­cused on turn­ing out the women’s vote for GOP can­di­dates. So she set about to make Trump more ap­peal­ing to women.

She had him in­tro­duce a paid fam­ily med­i­cal leave ini­tia­tive with his daugh­ter. To mit­i­gate the per­cep­tion of racism, she had him cam­paign with African-amer­i­can pas­tors in Detroit.

She also was just about the only staffer who man­aged to tamp down Trump’s baser in­stincts and keep him on mes­sage — at least for a while.

The strat­egy seemed to be work­ing. By mid-septem­ber, Trump and ri­val Hil­lary Clin­ton were nearly tied, ac­cord­ing to an av­er­age of na­tional polls by Realclearpol­i­tics.

Then came the first pres­i­den­tial de­bate and Trump’s Miss Uni­verse melt­down, fol­lowed by the re­lease of a tape where Trump bragged about how his fame en­abled him to grab women by the gen­i­tals with im­punity.

And to cap off Trump’s dis­mal month with women, this week a flood of women have come forth to say that Trump sex­u­ally as­saulted them. All of which blew Conway’s care­ful strat­egy to ap­peal to white women vot­ers to hell.

Re­cent polls show women mov­ing away from Trump post haste. A PRRI/THE At­lantic poll re­leased Oc­to­ber 11 showed Clin­ton lead­ing Trump amongst women 61 per­cent to 28 per­cent, a five-point drop for Trump’s sup­port amongst women from a sim­i­lar poll done just one week ear­lier. A CBS News poll of bat­tle­ground states out Oc­to­ber 16 found Clin­ton’s sup­port amongst women up six per­cent­age points to 51 per­cent from last month, while Trump was down four per­cent­age points to 36 per­cent.

And Quin­nip­iac sur­vey taken Oc­to­ber 5-6 found Trump’s sup­port stead­ier amongst women — 36 per­cent, the same as in a sim­i­lar poll from Septem­ber. But saw a surge for Clin­ton, whose sup­port amongst women in the same pe­riod rose from 54 per­cent to 58 per­cent.

If only women voted in this elec­tion, Clin­ton would win 458 elec­toral votes to Trump’s 80, ac­cord­ing to mod­el­ing done by Fivethir­tyeight.

The most strik­ing swing has been amongst white non-col­lege-ed­u­cated women, usu­ally one of the most re­li­ably Repub­li­can of vot­ing groups.

In the last three elec­tions, Repub­li­cans have won these women by mar­gins of 19 points in 2004, 17 points in 2008 and 20 points in 2012. And yet, the PRRI/THE At­lantic poll found them split evenly for Clin­ton and Trump, 40 per­cent to 40 per­cent.

That one de­mo­graphic all but dooms Trump’s al­ready maimed cam­paign. Women have swung every elec­tion since Ron­ald Rea­gan. Repub­li­cans have only won the White House in the last 20 years by driv­ing out the male vote — which Trump is do­ing — and mit­i­gat­ing the loss of women to less than ten per­cent­age points. This is where Trump is fail­ing: He’s los­ing women over­all by 15 per­cent­age points, ac­cord­ing to an av­er­age of polls by Fivethir­tyeight.

In­deed, things are so bad, Trump him­self ac­knowl­edged the prob­lem in a tweet on Sun­day: “Polls close, but can you be­lieve I lost large num­bers of women vot­ers based on made up events THAT NEVER HAP­PENED. Me­dia rig­ging elec­tion!”

Trump is un­likely to make up those votes amongst mi­nori­ties and it’s hard to imag­ine him turn­ing out white men in even greater num­bers with­out also driv­ing higher mi­nor­ity turnout for Clin­ton, which would off­set those gains.

His one shot to win the White House rested on con­vinc­ing women vot­ers to vote for him. Turns out, even when you’re fa­mous like Trump, there are some things women won’t tol­er­ate from you. — Time.

don­ald trump has lost the sup­port of white women vot­ers.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Lesotho

© PressReader. All rights reserved.