Bet­ting mar­kets give in­sight into No­bel Prize

The Myanmar Times - - The Pulse -

AMER­I­CAN nov­el­ist Don DeLillo has emerged as an out­side con­tender for this week’s No­bel Prize in lit­er­a­ture – at least in the minds of the bet­ting pub­lic.

The Swedish Academy, the mem­bers of which de­cide on the win­ner of the 8 mil­lion Swedish krona US$950,000) award, an­nounced on Oc­to­ber 11 that the name of this year’s No­bel lau­re­ate would be re­vealed to­day.

DeLillo was pre­vi­ously at 66/1 at Lad­brokes, but has now moved to 14/1.

“DeLillo is a very in­ter­est­ing mover,” said Lad­brokes spokesper­son Alex Dono­hue. “This seems to be the out­side choice the lit­er­ary bet­ting pub­lic have latched on to.”

Dono­hue added that Spain’s Javier Marías was “sim­i­larly com­ing in at late no­tice, [at] 66/1 then 33/1 and now 16/1”.

Anal­y­sis last week from Lad­brokes has shown that over the last 10 years the favourite when bet­ting was sus­pended has taken the prize four times, while 91 per­cent of the time the win­ner has had odds of 10/1 or less when bet­ting was sus­pended.

The even­tual win­ner has also seen their odds de­crease by an av­er­age of 32pc in the fi­nal week be­fore the prize is an­nounced.

Ja­panese nov­el­ist Haruki Mu­rakami, for­merly the favourite at Lad­brokes, has now been usurped by Kenyan NgNJgƭ wa Thiong’o, who has moved from 10/1 to 4/1 at the bet­ting firm.

Dono­hue said that the top three most pop­u­lar bets at this stage are DeLillo, Thiong’o and Marías. “Mu­rakami’s army of fans came out to play early on but sup­port for him has dried up.

“It looks like he will con­tinue to fall down the list as the an­nounce­ment looms,” he added. At ri­val bet­ting firm Uni­bet and Wil­liam Hill, how­ever, Mu­rakami re­mains top, fol­lowed by the Syr­ian poet Ado­nis.

DeLillo, the Na­tional Book Award-win­ning au­thor of nov­els in­clud­ing Un­der­world and White Noise, is the win­ner of the Li­brary of Congress Prize for Amer­i­can fic­tion, which hon­ours “an Amer­i­can lit­er­ary writer whose body of work is distin­guished not only for its mas­tery of the art but for its orig­i­nal­ity of thought and imag­i­na­tion”.

The No­bel goes to writ­ers whom the 18 mem­bers of the Swedish Academy judge to have writ­ten “the most out­stand­ing work in an ideal di­rec­tion”.

In re­cent years, this has ranged from the Be­laru­sian jour­nal­ist Svet­lana Alex­ievich, hon­oured for her “poly­phonic writ­ings, a mon­u­ment to suf­fer­ing and courage in our time”, to China’s Mo Yan, “who with hal­lu­ci­na­tory re­al­ism merges folk tales, his­tory and the con­tem­po­rary”.

Since 1901, 108 lau­re­ates have been cho­sen, 14 of whom have been women. – The Guardian

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