Longer-term beef mar­ket pos­i­tive

Matamata Chronicle - - Rural Delivery -

Rabobank ex­pects United States beef prices to reach record highs later next year. But New Zealand would have to weather a sup­ply ‘‘bulge’’ first it said. Es­ca­lat­ing ex­change rates, global eco­nomic uncer­tainty and cli­mate risks were short-term ob­sta­cles for global beef mar­kets but the longer out­look was pos­i­tive, re­port coau­thor Re­becca Red­mond said.

Ex­pected global beef sup­ply in­crease in times of un­cer­tain eco­nomic growth would put New Zealand’s mar­kets un­der pres­sure through to the first quar­ter of 2012. ‘‘One key fac­tor is the high level of slaugh­ter of United States cat­tle herds due to the se­vere drought across the south­west,’’ Ms Red­mond said. ‘‘This is re­sult­ing in an in­creased dom- es­tic sup­ply in the US, a key New Zealand beef ex­port mar­ket, against a back­drop of consumer de­mand soft­en­ing.’’

But she said cat­tle prices were likely to reach record highs later next year as mar­kets ex­ited a short-term sup­ply bulge – pri­mar­ily in the US – go­ing straight into a short­age.

Ms Red­mond said the longterm view was that global meat pro­tein sup­plies would con­tinue to trail in­come and pop­u­la­tion growth in im­por­tant emerg­ing mar­kets.

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