Longer-term beef market positive
Rabobank expects United States beef prices to reach record highs later next year. But New Zealand would have to weather a supply ‘‘bulge’’ first it said. Escalating exchange rates, global economic uncertainty and climate risks were short-term obstacles for global beef markets but the longer outlook was positive, report coauthor Rebecca Redmond said.
Expected global beef supply increase in times of uncertain economic growth would put New Zealand’s markets under pressure through to the first quarter of 2012. ‘‘One key factor is the high level of slaughter of United States cattle herds due to the severe drought across the southwest,’’ Ms Redmond said. ‘‘This is resulting in an increased dom- estic supply in the US, a key New Zealand beef export market, against a backdrop of consumer demand softening.’’
But she said cattle prices were likely to reach record highs later next year as markets exited a short-term supply bulge – primarily in the US – going straight into a shortage.
Ms Redmond said the longterm view was that global meat protein supplies would continue to trail income and population growth in important emerging markets.