Geonet downgrades risk of major quake
GeoNet has revised its Kaikoura aftershock forecasts, downgrading the risk of another large earthquake.
They now put the odds of another earthquake between M6.0 and M6.9 hitting within 30 days at 15 per cent, down from 18 per cent in February.
‘‘We like this downward movement in our forecast; it is good step in the right direction,’’ GeoNet scientists wrote in their release.
‘‘But does this mean we are all in the clear and don’t need to worry about more big earthquakes? No, absolutely not. A 15 per cent chance in a month is still a concerning probability.’’
The aftershocks from the Kaikoura earthquake would mostly affect the immediate area surrounding Kaikoura.
The probability of an aftershock causing building damage and strong shaking within the next year are as high as 20 per cent in Kaikoura.
GeoNet does not include projections of earthquakes on other faultlines in these calculation tables.
The Alpine Fault still has a 30 per cent chance of rupturing in the next 50 years, causing significant damage to the South Island.