Geonet down­grades risk of ma­jor quake

Nelson Mail - - NEWS - HENRY COOKE

GeoNet has re­vised its Kaik­oura af­ter­shock fore­casts, down­grad­ing the risk of an­other large earth­quake.

They now put the odds of an­other earth­quake be­tween M6.0 and M6.9 hit­ting within 30 days at 15 per cent, down from 18 per cent in Fe­bru­ary.

‘‘We like this down­ward move­ment in our fore­cast; it is good step in the right di­rec­tion,’’ GeoNet sci­en­tists wrote in their re­lease.

‘‘But does this mean we are all in the clear and don’t need to worry about more big earth­quakes? No, ab­so­lutely not. A 15 per cent chance in a month is still a con­cern­ing prob­a­bil­ity.’’

The af­ter­shocks from the Kaik­oura earth­quake would mostly af­fect the im­me­di­ate area sur­round­ing Kaik­oura.

The prob­a­bil­ity of an af­ter­shock caus­ing build­ing dam­age and strong shak­ing within the next year are as high as 20 per cent in Kaik­oura.

GeoNet does not in­clude pro­jec­tions of earth­quakes on other fault­lines in these cal­cu­la­tion ta­bles.

The Alpine Fault still has a 30 per cent chance of rup­tur­ing in the next 50 years, caus­ing sig­nif­i­cant dam­age to the South Is­land.

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