FOREST TALK
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A CENTURY FROM NOW, LOGGERS IN NEW ZEALAND WILL BE harvesting Radiata pines a lot younger than today’s trees and they’ll be taller and thinner.
That’s the difference climate change will make to our future trees, according to a study recently completed by Scion and Landcare Research scientists.
Their report, which has just been published in the journal ‘Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research’, was sparked by concerns how climate change and future biosecurity threats might affect New Zealand’s plantation forests.
A warmer climate could have some positive effects, they say, increasing levels of carbon dioxide on photosynthesis, the productivity of Radiata pine could increase on average by 10% by 2040 and double that by 2090. That’ll be good for sequestering more harmful carbon dioxide and it will mean trees can also be harvested earlier.
Lead author, Scion’s Dr Michael Watt, says: “Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will increase the rate at which trees grow. An increased growth rate will result in trees becoming taller and more slender.”
Among the downsides highlighted by the study is increased wind damage as increasingly slender and taller trees will be more susceptible to windthrow by future storms. The risks of breaking or uprooting can be reduced somewhat by modified forestry practices such as timely thinning and earlier harvesting, according to co-author Dr John Moore.
Very high and extreme fire risk days are also predicted to increase, with the length of the average fire season increasing by about 70% by 2040 and 80% by 2090. Fire scientist, Grant Pearce, found the most fire prone regions (Gisborne, Marlborough and Canterbury) will remain the most at risk, but that the relative increase in risk is highest in Wellington and coastal Otago, where it could double and triple to 30 days and 20 days per season, respectively.
And whilst New Zealand is currently free of any significant damaging insects, population levels and damage may increase in the future as warmer temperatures may provide an environment for foreign species and accelerate insect development. Weeds are likely to expand their range under climate change and compete more strongly with plantations.
NZL