Trump’s pres­i­dency gen­er­ates un­cer­tainty

South Waikato News - - Farming -

All bets are off in guess­ing what Don­ald Trump’s pres­i­dency could mean for fu­ture trade agree­ments be­tween the United States and New Zealand.

His US pres­i­den­tial elec­tion win has cre­ated a lot of un­cer­tainty around whether he would back up his cam­paign rhetoric with ac­tion and what this would mean for New Zealand, Lin­coln Univer­sity pro­fes­sor of in­ter­na­tional trade, Craw­ford Fal­coner said. ‘‘We’re in un­charted ter­ri­tory.’’ ‘‘He’s un­pre­dictable and I would never rule out things com­ing from left field.’’

It was also pos­si­ble Trump would adopt a trade strat­egy of go­ing af­ter coun­tries through trade dis­putes.

That could in­cluded rais­ing tar­iffs against China and tear­ing up the North Amer­ica Free Trade Agree­ment and the TPPA, which he be­lieved was now highly un­likely to be rat­i­fied by the US.

Many of Trump’s sup­port­ers backed a na­tion­al­is­tic ‘‘Amer­ica first’’ trade strat­egy where US ex­ports were pro­moted and coun­tries im­ported US ex­ports.

But Fal­coner doubted many coun­tries would agree to that.

‘‘What you might find as part of his strat­egy to make Amer­ica great again, he will have a sto­ry­line in there about a to­tally new ap­proach to trade. It wouldn’t at all sur­prise me to see that kind of rhetoric com­ing out.’’

Trump had cre­ated an ex­pec­ta­tion among Amer­i­can vot­ers of chang­ing things. Fal­coner would not be sur­prised if Trump had an ac­tivist agenda when it came to trade and pur­su­ing US in­ter­ests.

In re­sponse, New Zealand had to make a more ag­gres­sive ef­fort to se­cure trade agree­ments in Asian and Europe, he said


Repub­li­can Pres­i­den­tial nom­i­nee Don­ald Trump ad­dresses sup­port­ers.

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