Hous­ing short­age es­ti­mates show NZ has 60,000 short­fall

South Waikato News - - Community Cookbook -

New Zealand is up to 60,000 houses short, with Auck­land need­ing as many as 35,000 homes, es­ti­mates in a Trea­sury doc­u­ment sug­gest.

The fig­ures are part of hous­ing sup­ply and de­mand fore­cast pro­duced in Septem­ber of 2016 and re­leased in Jan­uary as part of an Of­fi­cial In­for­ma­tion Act re­quest.

Us­ing their own met­rics, Trea­sury es­ti­mate that the ‘‘cu­mu­la­tive short­fall’’ houses in Auck­land was at be­tween 30,000 and 35,000 in June of 2016.

That fig­ure is es­ti­mated to get slightly worse in 2018, as the pop­u­la­tion con­tin­ues to in­crease, be­fore im­prov­ing.

It in­di­cates that be­tween June 2015 and June 2016, just un­der 9000 homes were added to the mar­ket in Auck­land - but 16,748 buy­ers started look­ing for homes.

Trea­sury pro­jected this short­fall to drop to around 15,000 by 2030, but changes in pop­u­la­tion growth, the econ­omy, or house­hold size could change that.

If pop­u­la­tion growth fol­lows a ’’high pro­jec­tion’’ pro­duced by Statis­tics NZ, the short­fall could grow by 30,000 homes by 2030.

ANZ Bank es­ti­mates the short­fall is grow­ing by 4000 homes per quar­ter, for a na­tional short­fall of 60,000 dwellings.

English said the 60,000 fig­ure was an ‘‘er­ro­neous es­ti­mate’’, with es­ti­mates of a short­fall be­tween 10,000 and 20,000 more likely.

ROBERT KITCHIN

Trea­sury an­a­lysts says the coun­try has a short­fall of 60,000 houses.

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