100 days since the quake, what is the lie of the land?
One hundred days on from the magnitude 7.8 Kaikoura quake, Wellington is still without assurances that it’s 100 per cent safe.
Buildings remain closed as safety tests are ongoing, and demolition work is continuing at Reading Cinema carpark in the central city and at Queensgate Mall in Lower Hutt.
About 200 people are still unable to return home while the Reading demolition continues, and thousands of workers have been relocated to new office spaces or are working from home while buildings are checked, doublechecked and strengthened.
At 12.02 am on November 14, the quake struck around 60 kilometres south-west of Kaikoura. The tremor and its rash of aftershocks killed two people, prompted tsunami warnings, tore up highway roads and isolated parts of the South Island.
While no-one was killed or seriously hurt in the Wellington region, hundreds were forced out of their homes and thousands of workers were displaced.
Both Wellington Mayor Justin Lester and the city’s chief resilience officer, Mike Mendonca, have praise for the community’s response to the challenges posed by the quake and the storms that battered the capital the following day.
But neither claim they have all the answers.
‘‘No city or country could ever say they are prepared for anything that could be thrown at them through a natural event. No-one could say that,’’ Lester said. ‘‘But, certainly, we are trying to be as best prepared as possible.’’
Mendonca agreed. ‘‘I would never say that we were fully prepared. I think we are better prepared than we were before. I think that would be the bottom line – that Wellington has come through well, but let’s not get complacent.
‘‘This is all about people, rather than pipes and cables.’’
Today, the quake is still having a lasting impact on building stocks.
It prompted Wellington City Council to utilise new powers to compel building owners to share their engineering reports. More invasive testing was ordered for 80 city buildings, after early results from a government investigation into Statistics House sparked safety concerns.
The tests so far have uncovered some damage, but no threat to public safety. Due to a lack of engineers, 18 of the building owners have been granted extensions.
One of the most enduring symbols of November’s quake was 61 Molesworth St – the first commercial property to be bowled due to safety fears. That site is now clear.
Demolition work has advanced at the Reading Cinema car park complex, but the Tory St-Courtenay Place cordon remains in place, with about 200 residents and dozens of workers still unlikely to return until the second or third week of March.
Heavy machinery was also being used to pull down Event Cinemas at Queensgate mall in Lower Hutt, as well as a 300-space car park there.
Phil Littlewood, of Stride Property, which owns the mall, hoped the 70 or so retailers affected by the complex’s partial closure will be allowed back in April.
Question marks still hang over the fates of a clutch of buildings, including Defence House, Statistics House and BNZ Harbour Quays.
Wellington Chamber of Commerce chief executive John Milford has labelled the official quake response to date as ‘‘appropriate’’ but said there was room for improvement.
‘‘There is now real pressure to urgently focus public expenditure on the city and region’s key infrastructure to safeguard and guarantee Wellington’s resilience,’’ Milford said.
‘‘Water access, electricity supply and getting the Port’s operations back up and running are vital.
‘‘We cannot have a situation where the continued operation of the capital city is under threat because we have just one water pipeline with insufficient storage and just one electricity supply
‘‘Wellington has come through well, but let’s not get complacent.’’ Chief resilience officer Mike Mendonca
point into the CBD.’’
Lester acknowledged future-proofing the city from the impact of a natural disaster was a priority: ‘‘From the first of July next year, we’ll be looking at fasttracking infrastructure projects ... we’re also looking at the Prince of Wales reservoir water storage, also a crossharbour pipeline coming straight from the Hutt.’’
Mendonca said the council needed to be prepared to invest.
Meanwhile, seismologists say the probability of another major quake hitting the Kaikoura quake zone is decreasing by the day – but the threat still exists.
As of Monday, more than 13,600 shakes had been recorded since the November shake – 55 of them measuring magnitude 5 to 5.9, while four events were magnitude 6 or greater.
This week, GeoNet said there was an 18 per cent chance of a magnitude 6 to 6.9 quake striking within the next month – this latest forecast is down from 25 per cent last month.
While the downward trend was positive, GeoNet public information specialist Caroline Little said we only needed to look at Canterbury to realise aftershock sequences can last for years.