Top stables to dominate feature
With the possible exception of High Lad, any of the quintet could win
Cambridge’s two winning machine stables, Baker/ Forsman and Stephen Marsh, have eyes everywhere this weekend including Baker/ Forsman’s three acceptors in the A$650,000 Rosehill Guineas.
And the two stables have four of the five favourites for tomorrow’s $100,000 Windsor Park Stud Japan International Trophy at Matamata.
Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman produce Coldplay, Nicolette and High Lad into the Group 2 feature and Marsh has Thee Auld Floozie and Ruud Not To.
With the possible exception of High Lad, any of the other quartet could win without raising one eyebrow. Coldplay has strong claims and has come up as the $5 joint favourite with last week’s winner Seventh Up.
Coldplay has been freshened since seeming to not see out the 2000m in the weight-for-age behind stablemate Lizzie L’Amour at Te Rapa on February 10. She has had a barrier trial this week and won it at Taupo to sharpen her for this 1600m, her pet distance.
Her career best run was to narrowly take a dog-fight Rich Hill Mile at Ellerslie three starts back. She was subsequently less than one length behind Thee Auld Floozie in third at Ellerslie before the Te Rapa failure. The short break and barrier trial should have been of great benefit for her. Thee Auld Floozie is a remarkable mare. Her last 14 months of racing has been two levels above what she previously achieved and the Marsh stable reports she has done stunningly well since her gutsy win under Huge Bowman at Ellerslie after sitting three wide in mid-field most of the journey.
Her horror No 14 barrier draw looks bad on paper, but the 1600m Matamata start allows a long run down the back straight, which should allow Leith Innes to find some sort of a position before they get to the 800m. She is another who should benefit from a short break.
Seventh Up is difficult to judge. He has plenty of class, evidenced by his Easter Stakes victory at Ellerslie last autumn. He came back from a threemonth break to win first-up at Rotorua, but here has to come off a sevenday back-up.
To be fair he has had four career second-up runs for a win and three placings, so that dynamic may not be an issue. Greatly in his favour is that the weather forecast for tomorrow is not fabulous for the Waikato and Seventh Up has a remarkable five winning runs from seven starts on rain-affected footing.
Several of his main rivals would not be anywhere near as well suited by rain. One of those would probably be Ruud Not To, although in 20 starts she has not been tried in the wet. She looks greatly improved for recent racing which included a win and a second.
Nicoletta didn’t show up on the very firm Ellerslie on March 10. Her earlier form was all minor placings, but they were achieved against extremely strong fields. She is good enough to win this. The value runners are local Our Kings Sway, particularly with rain, Rangipo and Tiptronic.
The other hot Cambridge stable, Tony Pike’s, can be difficult to hold out in the $30,000 New Zealand Bloodstock Pearl Series Race with Indecision engaged. She missed away at Ellerslie last start and even though only seventh did extremely well after covering a huge amount of extra ground. She can usually put herself in the race and if she finishes off her last 600m from a reasonable position the same way she did from last at Ellerslie, she will be right in it.
Local mare Yearn is talented and tough, which she will need to be under 60kg. As much as that is a big weight for a mare, even more important is she will have to concede Indecision a whopping 6kg. She has a favourable No 2 gate, which should allow her a cosy passage.
Rikki Tikki Tavi, winner of four of her last five, has to make appeal from her inside barrier. The determined finish she produced to win at Ellerslie last start got everyone’s attention.
Lovelight will be tough to handle in the Drymix Cement Bay Of Plenty Cup with the aid this time of a decent barrier draw. An outside gate helped get her beaten at Ellerslie last time, which followed a winning double. Richie McHorse, who won that event, will be tough though.
At today’s Avondale meeting Danielle Johnson will don Sir Peter Vela’s colours when she partners the genuine Silver Cloud in the Westbrook.co.nz 1200m.
“She’s going really well, but she is an awkward horse to ride,” said Vela’s racing manager Garry Cossey.
“If she hits the front too soon she tends to switch off, hence she’s run a lot of seconds.”
Trained by Steven Ramsay and Julia Ritchie, Silver Cloud has three runner-up finishes from her last four appearances. She beat all but Bevan Street at Ellerslie earlier this month at her most recent outing. — additional reporting NZ Racing Desk