Voting shows nations’ divisions growing deeper

The deep divisions that have defined American politics in the era of President Donald Trump played out across the country yesterday, as Democrats scored victories in key races in Republican-held suburban House districts but ran into a wall of opposition in red-state Senate contests.

All year long, Democrats talked optimistically about a blue wave that they believed was building around the country, one powerful enough to flip control of the House and even, against the odds, put the Senate in play as well. But a different reality began to set in early yesterday, as the familiar contours of red and blue America powerfully reasserted themselves.

A change in the balance of power in the House alone represents a pulling back from the President by key parts of the electorate, and it is likely to have a significant effect on the second half of Trump’s first term, particularly in Washington.

But the overall voting patterns in both House and Senate contests, as well as the exit polls, signalled that the differences and divisions that have defined the country during Trump’s presidency remain and seemingly are growing stronger.

That sets the stage for a contentious and competitive presidential election two years from now, with the stakes higher than ever.

Trump can claim credit for the Republican successes in key Senate races, as he campaigned relentlessly over the last weeks of the Midterms, focusing heavily on states where he had done best in his 2016 victory.

By elevating the issue of immigration with warnings, without evidence, of a coming invasion of undocumented immigrants, Trump found a way to protect the GOP’s narrow majority in the Senate.

But those same tactics may have contributed to the success of Democrats in some of the most contested House races.

This was an election that once again saw men and women moving in different directions. In key suburban districts, Democratic challengers were counting on the support of women, particularly women with college degrees, to push them over the top. But there were signs that white men, especially those without college degrees, who have become the backbone of the Trump coalition, also were coming out in significant numbers.

Republicans had suffered from an intensity gap earlier in this election cycle, but a combination of factors helped to narrow the Democrats’ advantage.

In part, the normal patterns of partisans coming home as Election Day neared took hold. But the confirmation battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which turned into a bitter fight, helped to energise the GOP coalition as well.

Added to that was Trump’s relentless campaigning.

A Washington Post-Schar School poll survey underscored the degree to which this Midterm, perhaps more than any in the recent past, had raised the emotional level of the population. Nearly 4 in 10 voters (37 per cent) in battleground districts said the principal word they would use to describe their feelings about this election was “angry”. Another 37 per cent called themselves “anxious”.

Perhaps reflecting the exhaustion of a time in which everything seems hyper partisan and supercharged, 44 per cent said they were hopeful about what the election results would bring. Network exit polls, meanwhile, found that nearly 8 in 10 Americans said they believed the country was more divided than ever.

With the Democrats taking control of the House, both Democratic congressional leaders and the President face some difficult choices in the months ahead.

The President will have to decide whether to try to work with Democrats or not.

Congressional Democrats will have to make a similar calculation.