NIWA's pre­dic­tions for De­cem­ber – Fe­bru­ary

The Orchardist - - Contents -

River flows for De­cem­ber 2013 – Fe­bru­ary 2014 are fore­cast to be near nor­mal (35 to 40 %) or be­low nor­mal (35 %) in the north and west of the North Is­land, as well as in the north and west of the South Is­land. Nor­mal river flows are most likely (40 %) in the east of the North Is­land, while be­low nor­mal river flows are most likely in the east of the South Is­land (45 % chance). On the ba­sis of this fore­cast, coastal Can­ter­bury and east Otago are most likely to ex­pe­ri­ence drier than nor­mal con­di­tions over the sum­mer. Soil mois­ture lev­els are most likely (45 %) to be near nor­mal in all re­gions but for the east of the South Is­land, where nor­mal and be­low nor­mal soil mois­ture lev­els are equally likely (40 %). Rain­fall to­tals over the De­cem­ber–Fe­bru­ary pe­riod as a whole are most likely (45% chance) to be near nor­mal in all re­gions ex­cept for the north of the North Is­land, where rain­fall is equally likely (40% chance) to be near nor­mal or above nor­mal. Tem­per­a­tures over the De­cem­ber–Fe­bru­ary pe­riod as a whole are equally likely (40% chance) to be near av­er­age or above av­er­age in the north and east of the North Is­land and the east of the South Is­land, while above av­er­age tem­per­a­tures are the most likely out­come (45 to 50 % chance) for the re­main­ing re­gions of the New Zealand.

Re­gional out­look

NORTH­LAND, AUCK­LAND, WAIKATO, BAY OF PLENTY

The ta­ble be­low shows the prob­a­bil­i­ties (or per­cent chances) for each of three cat­e­gories: above av­er­age, near av­er­age, and be­low av­er­age. In the ab­sence of any fore­cast guid­ance there would be an equal like­li­hood (33% chance) of the out­come be­ing in any one of the three cat­e­gories. Fore­cast in­for­ma­tion from lo­cal and global guid­ance mod­els is used to in­di­cate the de­vi­a­tion from equal chance ex­pected for the com­ing three month pe­riod, with the fol­low­ing out­comes the most likely (but not cer­tain) for this re­gion: • Tem­per­a­tures and rain­fall to­tals are equally likely (40%

chance) to be in the near av­er­age or above av­er­age range.

Soil mois­ture lev­els are most likely (45%) to be in the near nor­mal range.

River flows are equally likely (35%) to be in the be­low nor­mal or near nor­mal range. Note that this is not very dif­fer­ent from the prob­a­bil­ity of above nor­mal river flows (30 %), mean­ing that the un­cer­tainty in the fore­cast is high for the De­cem­ber – Fe­bru­ary pe­riod as a whole.

Other out­comes can­not be ex­cluded. The full prob­a­bil­ity break­down is:

CEN­TRAL NORTH IS­LAND,TARANAKI, WAN­GANUI, MANAWATU, WELLINGTON

Prob­a­bil­i­ties are as­signed in three cat­e­gories: above av­er­age, near av­er­age, and be­low av­er­age.

Tem­per­a­tures are most likely (45% chance) to be in the above av­er­age range.

Rain­fall to­tals and soil mois­ture lev­els are most likely (45% chance) to be in the nor­mal range.

River flows are al­most equally likely to be in the near nor­mal or be­low nor­mal range (40% and 35% re­spec­tively).

The full prob­a­bil­ity break­down is:

GIS­BORNE, HAWKE’S BAY, WAIRARAPA

Prob­a­bil­i­ties are as­signed in three cat­e­gories: above av­er­age, near av­er­age, and be­low av­er­age.

Tem­per­a­tures are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near av­er­age or above av­er­age range. Rain­fall to­tals, soil mois­ture lev­els and river flows are most likely (40 -45% chance) to be in the near nor­mal range.

The full prob­a­bil­ity break­down is:

NEL­SON, MARL­BOR­OUGH, BULLER

Prob­a­bil­i­ties are as­signed in three cat­e­gories: above av­er­age, near av­er­age, and be­low av­er­age. • Tem­per­a­tures are most likely (50% chance) to be in the above av­er­age range. Rain­fall and soil mois­ture are most likely (40-45% chance) to be in the near nor­mal range.

River flows are al­most equally likely to be in the near nor­mal or be­low nor­mal range (40% and 35% re­spec­tively).

The full prob­a­bil­ity break­down is:

WEST COAST, ALPS AND FOOTHILLS, IN­LAND OTAGO, SOUTH­LAND

Prob­a­bil­i­ties are as­signed in three cat­e­gories: above av­er­age, near av­er­age, and be­low av­er­age. • Tem­per­a­tures are most likely (50% chance) to be in the above av­er­age range. Rain­fall and soil mois­ture are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near nor­mal range.

River flows are al­most equally likely to be in the near nor­mal or be­low nor­mal range (40% and 35% re­spec­tively).

The full prob­a­bil­ity break­down is:

COASTAL CAN­TER­BURY, EAST OTAGO

Prob­a­bil­i­ties are as­signed in three cat­e­gories: above av­er­age, near av­er­age, and be­low av­er­age. • Tem­per­a­tures are al­most equally likely to be in the above av­er­age or near av­er­age range (45% and 40% chance re­spec­tively).

Rain­fall is most likely (45% chance) to be in the near nor­mal range. Soil mois­ture lev­els are equally likely (40%) to be in the near nor­mal or be­low nor­mal range. River flows are most likely (45% chance) to be in the be­low nor­mal range.

The full prob­a­bil­ity break­down is:

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from New Zealand

© PressReader. All rights reserved.