The Press

Migration picture more of same: ASB

- HAMISH RUTHERFORD

Rule changes designed to give the Government greater control over migration will have little or no impact on arrivals, economists at one of New Zealand’s major banks warn.

Today, Statistics New Zealand will release the number of longterm arrivals and departures for the year to March 31.

The figures are expected to show net migration stayed near or above the record 71,300 recorded in the year to February 28.

A long run of record net migration gains have led to warnings that the country’s infrastruc­ture is struggling to cope.

While much of the boost comes as a result of the large number of New Zealanders returning home, immigratio­n is likely to feature as an issue in the September 23 election, with Labour, the Green Party and NZ First also signalling changes to curb arrivals.

On April 19 Immigratio­n Minister Michael Woodhouse announced changes to work visa settings, including new pay band components for skilled migrant visas. He said the changes would ‘‘further control the number’’ of net migrants coming to New Zealand.

After consultati­on, the new rules were set to come into effect later in 2017, Woodhouse said.

But ASB has made no changes to its prediction­s as a result of the announceme­nt. It recently forecast that net migration would stay above 70,000 well into 2018 and stay at around 55,000 by the end of 2019, sending New Zealand’s population to 5 million.

ASB economist Daniel Snowden said the changes would make no difference to those coming in to New Zealand in the short term and in the medium and long term the change would be ‘‘at the margin’’.

‘‘We’re getting 128,000-ish arrivals in a 12-month period. Of those, only about a third are coming in on the visas the Government is targeting,’’ Snowden said.

‘‘And of those … a good proportion are not going to be affected anyway, and some [who are affected] would have left anyway.’’

It was possible there would be some impact in about three years’ time, but the degree of change could only be assessed once the changes were in force, he said.

‘‘There’s even a possibilit­y that people will be looking at this and speeding up their applicatio­ns to get in before [the changes],’’ he said. ‘‘It’s not going to change the current picture.’’

Although the recent surge in net migration confounded bank economists and the Treasury, most now expect the recent trend will continue near the current level for months to come.

 ?? PHOTO: FAIRFAX NZ ?? Immigratio­n Minister Michael Woodhouse unveiled proposals to help ‘‘control the numbers’’ of new migrants, but economists say the changes will make little or no difference in the short term.
PHOTO: FAIRFAX NZ Immigratio­n Minister Michael Woodhouse unveiled proposals to help ‘‘control the numbers’’ of new migrants, but economists say the changes will make little or no difference in the short term.

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