Rookies could decide leader

Ten virtual unknowns in the National Party could decide the next leader.

The first-term MPs, who have only been at Parliament for about two months since they were elected, now hold a crucial vote.

There are 56 MPs in the party but with it looking increasingly like there will be four contenders for the leadership, those votes will split fast.

It’s understood a progressional voting system will be used to decide the next leader, which means everyone casts a vote and if nobody gets 29 votes then the person with the lowest number drops off and they all vote again.

The process continues until one candidate wins at least 29 votes.

For some of those new MPs the most they may have had to do with the leadership contenders is a bit of small talk in Parliament’s corridors.

The candidates announced so far cover a lot of bases, which means some of the new caucus members may simply rely on voting for someone from their patch.

First out of the box to announce was Judith Collins – an Auckland businesswoman who ticks that allcrucial Auckland box and the female one too.

Simon Bridges heralds from Tauranga, where he was a lawyer, and covers off the provincial ticket – he’s also selling himself on generational change.

Then there’s Amy Adams – the southern farmer who comes from the Bill English mould in terms of background and her political way of thinking.

Mark Mitchell hasn’t announced but expect him to do so when he returns from seeing his daughter compete in Australia at the weekend. Mitchell is an expolice officer with solid foreign affairs experience, who also ticks the Auckland box.

He has the least to lose out of the candidates as he’s not married to politics in the same way the other candidates are.

Steven Joyce and Jonathan Coleman are both considering running but it’s looking increasingly unlikely that they will.

While those in the Bridges and Adams camp say it’s looking like a two-horse race, the potential for vote-splitting with four candidates and at least 10 MPs who have no firm frontrunner in their mind, means the race is still wide open.

It’s understood Collins has got the jump on wooing the class of 2017 MPs but don’t expect them to vote in any sort of a block.