Average weather is on its way
After a cool, soggy start to the year, Manawatu can look forward to temperatures and rainfall returning to something like average from February to April.
Niwa is predicting there is a 50-50 chance that temperatures will be near average for the three months for the central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu and Wellington.
And there is also a chance for some relief from the rain.
Rainfall totals are equally likely to be nearly normal, or even, below normal.
That means soil moisture levels and river flows could also return to the normal range, with a 35 per cent chance they might dip below normal.
Rainfall so far this summer has kept Palmerston North’s main water supply at Turitea topped up.
City council water asset engineer Dora Luo said there had only been two days since the beginning of January when the dam had not been overflowing.
Niwa said New Zealand was pretty much surrounded by fairly climate-neutral conditions, which only slightly favoured more westerly to south-westerly wind patterns than normal.
The probabilities are predictions, not forecasts, with hot and cold days, rain and dry spells that do not fit the three-month outlook to be expected.