Hillary has a foreign policy problem
LAST week, Hillary Clinton made history by becoming the first presumptive female nominee for president of a major US political party. In doing so, she fended off a serious threat from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist who has become a titanic force in the Democratic Party. Sanders has challenged Democratic orthodoxy on free trade, Mideast policy and the scope of executive power to conduct unlimited military campaigns under the auspices of the war against terrorism. In doing so he has exposed one of Clinton’s greatest vulnerabilities in a general election: Her judgment in conducting foreign affairs.
Clinton’s record as a military hawk is well-known. She voted for the Iraq War as a senator. As secretary of state, she pushed for US intervention in Libya and lobbied President Barack Obama to take military action against Bashar Assad in Syria. She was lukewarm about the nuclear deal with Iran. With respect to Israel, in March she gave a major policy speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee without so much as mentioning the plight of the Palestinians — a point later highlighted by Sanders, a son of Jewish immigrants, during their debate in Brooklyn.
Progressives, independents and liberal democrats who have been voting in large numbers for Sanders hold the keys for Clinton to defeat Donald Trump. If Clinton is to consolidate her support among these constituencies, she must reassure them that despite her record, she is willing to follow in Obama’s footsteps and not seek military solutions to every vexing foreign policy problem. Yet in this election year she faces two problems. First, in the past two national elections, the Democratic base has embraced Obama’s foreign policy doctrine, loosely defined as emphasizing negotiation and collaboration rather than confrontation and unilateralism. Sanders has projected a similar view of the US role in the world.
Second, Clinton’s opponent in the general election, Trump, has consistently conveyed a message that America is taking on too much of a burden in providing global security for its allies and not receiving enough of the commercial benefit. This argument has gained traction in a Republican Party that increasingly sees endless military campaigns in the Middle East as a drain on American blood and treasure. Thus, Clinton’s reliance on hard power as a means of advancing American interests is a tough sell in an election year where voters seem to prefer retrenchment rather than military adventurism.
Rather than embrace Obama’s foreign policy of military restraint, Clinton signalled in a major foreign policy address last week that she would be doubling down on the conflict in Syria by imposing a no-fly zone — something the Obama administration has ruled out for fear of deepening America’s involvement in the Syrian civil war and risking escalation with Russia and Iran, the Assad government’s main patrons.
Furthermore, Clinton has proclaimed that she would reaffirm her “unbreakable bond” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Fidelity to Israel’s security is a staple of all presidential campaigns, but Clinton has gone on record embracing an Israeli prime minister who repeatedly embarrassed Obama, tried to torpedo his signature foreign policy achievement — the Iran nuclear deal — and paid only lip service to the peace process with Palestinians.
Such positions put her at odds with Sanders’ supporters, who, like Obama, are committed to Israel’s security but also recognize the tremendous toll the occupation and continued expansion of Israeli settlements take on Ameri- can security interests in the Middle East and on Palestinian society. They would like to see the United States play a more evenhanded role. So far, Clinton has not shown any willingness to confront more hard-line Israeli policies that make peace harder to achieve. To defeat Trump, Clinton must not revert back to the US foreign policy status quo, which is grounded in the theory that military force and intervention hold the key to peace and prosperity — and has brought little in the way of either. During the more than two decades that US forces have been engaged in military action in the Middle East, militancy and instability have increased.
Obama, to his credit, charted a different course. His insistence on negotiating with Iran, a long time adversary, produced a landmark nuclear agreement — something that seemed inconceivable when George W. Bush occupied the White House. Clinton needs to show that she is equally comfortable exercising restraint, and that she understands the limits of US power as well as its effectiveness — an understanding that forms the bedrock of the world view embraced by Sanders and Obama supporters. The writer is Board Member of the Atlantic Council. — Courtesy: The Japan Times