En­ergy con­flict in the En­ergy Sub Hub of Eura­sia: How to get Rid of it

The Diplomatic Insight - - Contents - *Il­gar Gur­banov

Eura­sia, where fo­cused most of the geopo­lit­i­cal the­o­ries, was ex­pe­ri­enced by nu­mer­ous wars, be­came a can­di­date for afore­men­tioned ten­den­cies. The main ob­ject for wars “to cap­ture more ter­ri­to­ries” and “en­large­ment”, while main pol­i­tics was “di­vide, share and con­quer”. put their traces in mem­o­ries by the de­ploy­ment and ap­pli­ca­tion of heavy weapons and am­mu­ni­tions, while Cold War made a dis­tin­guished name for it­self by mass de­struc­tive weapons (MDW) threat. Nowa­days, not­with­stand­ing, Eura­sia re­mained as a cen­tre for geopo­lit­i­cal and geo ob­jects are nei­ther heavy weapons, nor nat­u­ral (oil, gas, coal, and ura­nium) and bi­o­log­i­cal (fresh wa­ter and food) re­sources, in­clud­ing ex­port routes (pipe­lines). Eurasian con­ti­nent plays cru­cial role in the pro­vi­sion of world en­ergy se­cu­rity. Namely, in this con­text, Eura­sia wit­nessed to­day’s en­ergy com­mon ap­proach. The in­ter­est­ing point is that the Eurasian con­ti­nent is not sep­a­rately an “en­ergy hub”. The con­ti­nent emerg­ing as a “main en­ergy hub” com­posed of en­ergy sub-hubs such as Mediter­ranean basin, North­ern Sea basin, Baltic Sea basin, Kara Sea basin, Black Sea basin, Caspian Sea basin, Cen­tral Asia, Mid­dle East re­gion, Per­sian Gulf, South Chi­nese Sea basin, and Rus­sia (Western Siberia, Sakhalin, Arc­tic coasts and amount of en­ergy re­sources, as it con­sti­tutes their com­mon sides. Eurasian con­ti­nent owns al­most most types of nat­u­ral re­sources, while those re­sources fo­cused on dif­fer­ent re­gions (en­ergy sub-hubs). En­ergy re­sources sources and con­ven­tional en­ergy sources, such as: How­ever, Eura­sia is not able to gain sta­tus of “com­mon en­ergy hub” in geopo­lit­i­cal stud­ies. Not­with­stand­ing the above-men­tioned en­ergy sub-hubs lo­cated in en­tire con­ti­nent, they are not sit­u­ated in one coun­try or re­gion. En­ergy re­sources fo­cused on coun­tries which geopo­lit­i­cally, geo-eco­nom­i­cally, and po­lit­i­cally dif­fer­ent. But, th­ese fol­low­ings: re­source ca­pac­ity fac­tor; and in­vest­ment fac­tor; ge­o­graph­i­cal and en­vi­ron­men­tal fac­tor; and

tech­no­log­i­cal fac­tor. The be­low­men­tioned scheme ex­plains bet­ter the point of view of author: - (Rus­sia ge­o­graph­i­cally is not a re­gion, but might be geopo­lit­i­cally con­sid­ered as a “re­gion” in terms of its vast - en­ergy re­sources and bor­der­ing with From the other hand, one can say that Rus­sia is not a re­gion from the ge­o­graph­i­cal point of view due to above men­tioned en­ergy sub-hubs. How­ever, Rus­sia in­tends to emerge as an “en­ergy su­per power” in, around and be­yond the re­gion in geopo­lit­i­cal con­text by im­ple­ment­ing its sneaky en­ergy pol­icy. En­ergy re­sources are very ra­tio­nally used by Rus­sia in or­der to gain its pre­vi­ous su­per power. One may clearly no­tice it in Rus­sia’s re­la­tions with Ukraine, Be­larus, Cen­tral Asian, South Cau­casian and Euro­pean Union Mem­ber States, in­clud­ing with Euro­pean Union. Cer­tainly, en­ergy se­cu­rity should not be per­ceived as only a meet­ing of the do­mes­tic en­ergy con­sump­tion. En­ergy se­cu­rity also con­sid­ers the trans­porta­tion of en­ergy re­sources through re­li­able and se­cure routes to re­li­able clients while it raises the “pipe­line diplo­macy” ques­tion. There are many chal­lenges which poses a threat for the en­tire en­ergy se­cu­rity of Eurasian con­ti­nent, such as us­age of en­ergy re­sources for po­lit­i­cal pur­poses; de­ple­tion of en­ergy re­sources; con­tin­u­ous wars Eura­sia; geopo­lit­i­cal chal­lenges for en­ergy trans­porta­tion routes. The main rea­sons for emerg­ing of en­ergy through which will be con­structed pipe­lines and se­lec­tion of the tran­sit might be sum­ma­rized as fol­low­ings:

;

- The Sea basins (en­ergy sub-hubs such as Mediter­ranean basin, North Sea basin, Baltic Sea basin, Kara Sea basin, Black Sea basin, Caspian Sea basin, Per­sian Gulf, and South China ; -

- The Caspian Basin (Le­gal Sta­tus of Caspian Sea; Im­ple­men­ta­tion of Trans-Caspian pipe­line pro­ject; mil­i­ta­riza­tion of Caspian Sea); More ten­sion emerged in the frame­work of Le­gal Sta­tus of Caspian Sea; - The Mediter­ranean basin (en­ergy fac­tor in Is­rael - Le­banon - Cyprus of for­eign en­ergy com­pa­nies to­ward ; - The Black Sea basin (Rus­sian-led South­ern Stream pipe­line pro­ject; de­lim­i­ta­tion prob­lem of Black Sea sec­tors be­tween Ro­ma­nia and Bul­garia ; - The South China Sea basin (Shale China Sea among China, Viet­nam, ; - Euro­pean ter­ri­to­ries (Rus­sianBalkan States (Croa­tia, Slove­nia, Rus­sian - Ukrainian / Mol­da­vian / ; - Cen­tral Asia (Im­ple­men­ta­tion of Turk­menistan – Afghanistan – Pak­istan Eco­nomic and po­lit­i­cal chal­lenges in the im­ple­men­ta­tion process of TAPI ;

Mid­dle East re­gion and Per­sian

Gulf (Arab spring; U.S. mil­i­tary Syr­ian ten­sion; PKK, Kur­dish ten­sion;

Emer­gence of Shale Gas and Oil

(France, Ger­many, UK, Ukraine, Bul­garia, Ro­ma­nia, China, Turkey etc and its threat to con­ven­tional en­ergy sup­pli­ers - Rus­sia, Mid­dle East coun­tries, - (Nabucco/ Nabucco-West; Trans-Ana­to­lian Pipe­line; South Stream; Nord Stream, White Stream, AGRI (Azer­bai­jani - ITGI (In­ter­con­nec­tor of Turkey ; - Arc­tic re­gion (the en­ergy re­sources of Arc­tic re­gion and the strug­gle of Den­mark (in­clud­ing Green­land and Nor­way, Rus­sia, Swe­den and the United States, in­clud­ing China (is . Ac­cord­ing to An­dre Comte-Sponville “en­ergy se­cu­rity is an ever con­tin­u­ous and never stopped war”. In his piece called “ , (Pres­i­dent of the Demo­cratic Repub­lic of Azer­bai­jan) wrote: “That is (oil – en­tire world with it­self”. How­ever, the next cen­tury can ex­am­ine the hunger of en­ergy re­sources.

There­fore, most of the coun­tries are de­vel­op­ing their re­new­able en­ergy sec­tor. Euro­pean is in the front line due the de­vel­op­ment of re­new­able en­ergy sec­tor. One must not un­der ap­pre­ci­ate sources. The fu­ture of the world econ­omy de­pends on re­new­able en­ergy that is both sus­tain­able and eco­log­i­cally friendly. There are sev­eral rea­sons for that:

1.

2. En­ergy con­sump­tion and needs are ris­ing very fast, while fos­sil fu­els will not last for long-run. Th­ese re­sources will be­come in­creas­ingly scarce and ex­pen­sive. In this case, there is go­ing to be an en­ergy cri­sis which will have a dev­as­tat­ing ef­fect over world econ­omy. Us­age of al­ter­na­tive en­ergy sources (wind, so­lar hy­dro en­ergy, tidal and geo­ther­mal helps to econ­o­mize the con­ven­tional en­ergy re­sources for fu­ture gen­er­a­tion, while also con­sid­ered as an en­vi­ron­men­tally clean dur­ing pro­duc­tion.

Eco­log­i­cal cri­sis can cause global warm­ing, while it can be re­sulted with melt­ing of po­lar ice-caps. Re­new­able en­ergy sec­tor can solve the global warm­ing prob­lem and this will also have an ef­fect on the world econ­omy and com­mu­ni­ties in the world. 3. Re­new­able en­ergy sources might be the best tool in or­der to re­duce pol­lu­tion in the world. Re­cy­cling and re-pro­duc­tion of in­dus­trial and house­hold wastes into en­ergy can help to econ­o­mize re­sources, in­clud­ing fu­elling of those wastes can pro­vide heat and power for our own houses. 4. Re­new­able en­ergy will de­crease the en­ergy de­pen­dency of some en­ergy-poor coun­tries upon oil and gas rich coun­tries. Re­new­able fu­els can be also pro­duced do­mes­ti­cally in ev­ery coun­try (de­spite of fos­sil fu­els). 5. Most of the en­ergy-rich coun­tries rely on rev­enues from oil and nat­u­ral gas sales. From the other side, the world pop­u­la­tion is grow­ing steadily. Do­mes­ti­cally pro­duced re­new­able en­ergy can help those coun­tries to grow their economies with rev­enues of it. 6. By ac­cess­ing to re­new­able en­ergy sources, many new jobs places might be cre­ated, notably for tech­ni­cal spe­cial­ist and engi­neers on this area. 7. The in­vest­ment in al­ter­na­tive en­ergy sec­tor will be a very smart ini­tia­tive, be­cause it is an in­vest­ment in the fu­ture of en­ergy and it means a great op­por­tu­nity to save the planet’s re­sources and time. To sum up, un­less en­ergy re­sources be­tween en­ergy rich and en­ergy poor coun­tries, as well as, tran­sit coun­tries will con­tinue in Eura­sia. In fact, en­ergy re­sources per­form as both ri­valry and co­op­er­a­tion fac­tor be­tween re­gions and re­gional states.

*The writer is An­a­lyst on Rus­sian and En­ergy Af­fairs “Strate­gic Out­look” Re­search Or­ga­ni­za­tion

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