Rus­sia-Tur­key Re­la­tions form or­der into Chaos

The Diplomatic Insight - - Russia-Turkey Relations form order into Chaos -

Im­pos­ing Eco­nomic sanc­tions and putting the visa regime for Tur­key to an end, are the re­sponses by Rus­sia in af­ter­math of the in­ci­dent in which the Rus­sian Su-24 jet was shot down by Turk­ish F-16s. The Rus­sian Pres­i­dent re­ferred to the in­ci­dent as a “stab in the back” com­mit­ted by “ac­com­plices of ac­tion by em­pha­siz­ing the claim that the plane was en­gaged in com­mu­ni­ca­tion and had ne­glected sev­eral warn­ings be­fore it was shot down. The in­ci­dent at­tracted mas­sive at­ten­tion, stag­gered the geopo­lit­i­cal panorama and ap­peared to be an ex­clu­sive ex­am­ple of con­fronta­tion be­tween Rus­sia and a mem­ber of NATO in the post-Cold War era but the stage to drag the multi ac­tors in a com­plex sce­nario. On Dec 11, Putin warned that cruise mis­siles “equipped ei­ther with con­ven­tional or spe­cial nu­clear war­heads” might be used in the con­fronta­tion with the Is­lamic State of Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS) – this trig­gered a de­bate in the Western me­dia that the nu­clear op­tion is on the ta­ble in the Mid­dle East. Fur­ther­more, Putin or­dered Rus­sia’s army to uti­lize all pos­si­ble mea­sure avail­able to their end in Syria and de­stroy ev­ery sin­gle ac­tor that threat­ens Rus­sia’s Armed Forces in the Mid­dle East. This mes­sages car­ries twofold im­pli­ca­tions, as threat­en­ing ac­tor can be a rab­ble group, ISIS an­other Rus­sian jet on al­leged vi­o­la­tion of their sovereignty. Nascent friendly re­la­tions be­tween the two un­der­went a wishy-washy pat­tern once again in af­ter­math of plane in­ci­dent. More than three mil­lion an­nual Rus­sian tourists to Tur­key could be seek­ing alternate des­ti­na­tions now, as Rus­sian tour op­er­a­tors have al­ready closed routes to Tur­key. The rapidly mush­room­ing restau­rants of Turk­ish cui­sine in Moscow are also more likely to be boy­cotted. Eco­nomic sanc­tions are usu­ally con­sid­ered less ef­fec­tive, yet it is ev­i­dent that the am­bi­tious goal of en­hanc­ing bi­lat­eral trade up to $100 bil­lion by 2023 is out of the ques­tion and cur­rent trade at a level of $32 (as 2014) bil­lion will be ham­pered also. It’s im­por­tant to as­sess why Tur­key risked its em­bry­onic bon­homie with the Krem­lin and what might be the mo­tives of Ankara for such ma­neu­ver­ing against a state that is po­ten­tially ca­pa­ble of Back in Septem­ber, af­ter fail­ing to reach a con­sen­sus in the an­nual ses­sion of the United Na­tions, Rus­sia uni­lat­er­ally de­cided to at­tack, hunt down and dis­man­tle the net­work of ISIS ter­ror­ist regime. The move gen­er­ated a de­bate in the West: The United States had failed to keep the prom­ises and pledges which were made in its ca­pac­ity as a global power. The USS Theodore Roo­sevelt

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