Im­pli­ca­tions of CPEC on Pak­istan in a GeoE­co­nomic and a Multi-Po­lar World Or­der

The Diplomatic Insight - - Special Supplement on China Pakistan Economic Corr -

There is no deny­ing of the fast changes that are tak­ing place in the in­ter­na­tional arena. Of course this is in con­text of the slowly re­clin­ing unipo­lar world or­der to­wards the emerg­ing mul­ti­po­lar­ity. With­out a doubt this mul­ti­po­lar or­der comes with both which must be taken into con­sid­er­a­tion by each state which could have stakes in it. This not only in­cludes the Su­per-power states but au­to­mat­i­cally in­cludes the other smaller states like the De­vel­op­ing States. Be­cause it is per­ti­nent for them to sur­vive in a world which has a mas­sive divi­sion of power. This is where we talk about Pak­istan, which is as a whole al­ready in the middle of a quag­mire con­cern­ing its poli­cies re­gard­ing pow­er­ful states and sta­bal­iz­ing economies. In such a time for Pak­istan per­haps CPEC has come as a bless­ing in dis­guise, de­pend­ing on how much ef­fort Pak­istan is ready to put into it mak­ing it a suc­cess. China-Pak­istan Eco­nomic Cor­ri­dor (CPEC) is some­thing which is per­haps the most an­tic­i­pated phe­nom­e­non in the in­ter­na­tional arena at the mo­ment. In this cen­tury, it is go­ing to be a deal breaker for not only in­ter­na­tional re­la­tions but also for mul­ti­ple eco­nomic rea­sons. As this will gen­er­ate many new re­al­i­ties which will emerge on the sur­face as soon as the foun­da­tions of this mega-struc­ture will be laid. Th­ese new re­al­i­ties will then shape and re-shape global sce­nar­ios—not only for China or other states which might For Pak­istan, CPEC and China’s “One Belt One Road” ini­tia­tive comes with a mul­ti­tude of hard facts. We see that at the same time it pro­vides enough op­pur­tu­ni­ties to Pak­istan’s oth­er­wise crum­bling econ­omy. But at the same end it comes with a num­ber of chal­lenges that Pak­istan will have to face. Also, where it has in­ter­nal im­pli­ca­tions for Pak­istan—in the ex­ter­nal do­main things are also go­ing to turn out to be much com­pli­cated. For a bet­ter un­der­stand­ing of the con­cepts of CPEC and the im­pli­ca­tions it car­ries, lets di­vide them into two sets; in­ter­nal and ex­ter­nal im­pacts for Pak­istan. In the in­ter­nal im­pacts, we will be talk­ing about the do­mes­tic trans­for­ma­tions CPEC might be hav­ing on Pak­istan while in the ex­ter­nal we will Pak­istan on the in­ter­na­tional front. Over­all it must be taken into ac­count that the com­plete pic­ture is a holis­tic one, where one fac­tor is bal­anced with the other. This is ex­actly what makes CPEC some­thing of a unique pro­ject for Pak­istan, not just in its mag­na­nim­ity but its over­all shape. At present, Pak­istan’s in­ter­nal struc­ture is at the junc­ture where it is ni­ether too solid and sta­ble that ev­ery­thing is and so­cially. Nor is it too un­sta­ble and un­steady that it is near­ing fu­ture dis­as­ters. This makes the time for ini­tial­iz­ing CPEC some­what per­fect as long as, in the fu­ture course of ac­tion it fur­thers into a geo-eco­nom­i­cal win for both China and Pak­istan. The cur­rent govern­ment of Pak­istan has taken a great ini­tia­tive in se­cur­ing this mas­sive deal with China—its long­stand­ing friend and ally, but per­haps it has over­looked cer­tain fac­tors which are now mak­ing things com­pli­cated for CPEC to come through. anal­y­sis of CPEC for Pak­istan is a fairly bal­anced one, we can safely say that struc­ture of Pak­istan. Firstly, if the govern­ment ac­tu­ally man­ages to pull it through and all the provinces ac­tu­ally get equal rep­re­sen­ta­tion in this megapro­ject then there is no doubt about the eco­nomic up­lift Pak­istani in­dus­try will get. More than any­thing the provinces which are cur­rently lag­ging like Sindh to de­velop more and more and as an off­shoot, busi­ness ven­tures will per­haps go through a boom. There might be an in­crease in trad­ing from th­ese ar­eas to in­ter­na­tional chan­nels. In fact if CPEC is to be an ul­ti­mate suc­cess it largely de­pends on equal par­tic­i­pa­tion of all provinces. But it is a per­plex­ing fac­tor for the govern­ment and the op­po­si­tion since this prob­lem is inches away from mak­ing CPEC the next big “Kal­abagh Dam De­bate” if it is not taken care provinces in de­vel­op­ment of CPEC, par­tic­u­larly KP, Sindh and Balochis­tan will de­duce some of the in­ter­nal prob­lems in­vol­un­tar­ily and iden­tify as well as erad­i­cate some grey ar­eas of Se­condly, CPEC will cre­ate job op­pur­tini­ties in­side Pak­istan along with the im­porve­ment of the in­fra­struc­ture and com­mu­ni­ca­tion ser­vices prov­ing a step for­ward for the over­all dvel­op­ment of Pak­istan. Again this largely de­pends on how se­ri­ous is Pak­istan in pulling it off. Forthly, on a neg­a­tive note, the very fact that more op­pur­tu­ni­ties will be cre­ated by this mega-pro­ject will breed yet more nepo­tism, cor­rup­tion among this will make the rich in­dus­tri­al­ists richer. This might just lead to a larger gap be­tween the al­ready over­whelm­ing class dif­fer­ences. This is per­haps one so­ci­etal im­pli­ca­tion for Pak­istan that most peo­ple are over­look­ing. Fourthly, the over­all se­cu­rity sit­u­a­tion in­side Pak­istan might get im­proved, be­cause it then sin­gu­larly de­pends on the in­ter­nal peace in or­der for CPEC to come through. This is one fac­tor that is known y both the govern­ment as well as se­cu­rity agen­cies. It is a mat­ter of great con­cern that even to­day Pak­istan has this men­ace of ter­ror­ism which is some­what hid­ing away and

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