It certainly isn't a manufacturers' rush to the US
AFTER a brutal period of downsizing and reorganising, the US manufacturing sector has become the most competitive in the world. Output per worker is higher than in any other major manufacturing country. Labour costs per unit of output are lower than in Brazil, Canada and Germany, and only slightly higher than in China. What's more, writes Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics in the new report from which the above facts are taken, "the US is 'gifted' with a stable regulatory framework, a flexible labour market, low energy costs and access to a large domestic market".
So that's great! Time for a manufacturing renaissance, right? Well, maybe, eventually. But - and Daco notes this in his report - there are few signs of it actually happening yet.
Yes, there are the almost 900,000 manufacturing jobs added in the US since early 2010. But it's important to see that for what it is - a modest rebound after a spectacular collapse: There has also been a big decline in the trade deficit, from 5.6 per cent of gross domestic product in 2006 to 3 per cent in 2015. But that turns out to be a product of an increase in the trade surplus in services and the huge boom in domestic oil production and accompanying fall in global oil prices.
Strip out petroleum and petroleum prod- ucts, in fact, and the trade deficit in goods is only down a little from its peak, and has grown markedly over the past two years. This seems like a good spot to mention that running a trade deficit isn't necessarily a bad thing.
The growth in the deficit in 2014 and 2015 is due in part to the strength of the US economy - faster growth than in other major economies and a strengthening dollar have led to more imports and fewer exports.
Still, you'd think that if there were a big return to manufacturing in the US afoot - "reshoring" is the term of art - it would be making itself more apparent in the data. Consider, for example, trade in capital goods. While, the US has been importing more cars and consumer goods than it exports for many decades, capital goods - aeroplanes, medical equipment, semiconductors and so on - have long been an area of comparative strength. Not so much anymore. Again, one can find temporary factors increasing this deficit. The US is usually a big net exporter of oil-drilling, mining and construction machinery, and recently demand for such equipment has plummeted ( sorry, Caterpillar!). That demand will return someday, presumably.
There really aren't many tangible signs, though, of a larger shift in manufacturing activity back to the US. The Boston Consulting Group, which has done as much as any organisation to popularise the idea of restoring manufacturing after years of offshoring to China and elsewhere, reported in December that a growing number of executives surveyed say they are moving production back to the US from China or at least thinking about it.
But rival consulting firm A.T. Kearney put out its own report in December asserting that "the reshoring phenomenon appears to have been more a one-off aberration than an inexorable trend."
Why isn't reshoring taking off? Daco, of Oxford Economics, said that such shifts don't happen overnight. "It takes quite a bit of time for a company to modify its supply chain," he said. He also noted that "nearshoring" to Mexico, where unit labour costs are still substantially lower than in the US, remains popular. A.T. Kearney, in its reshoring report, said that industries trying to avoid rising labour costs in China have been moving production to other Asian countries, not to the US - and that that's probably not going to change soon.
The countries of South and Southeast Asia - even after India is taken out of the equation - have labour forces that run into the hundreds of millions of workers, so the gradual shift of certain industries to other Asian low-cost countries is likely to continue.
This explains why clothing and furniture making, for example, are unlikely to return to the US in a big way. But in capital-goods manufacturing, labour costs matter less than technology and the existence of a local ecosystem of suppliers, consultants and skilled workers that can take a while to put together. In their rush to offshore, then, US manufacturers may have permanently destroyed their ability to make certain products here.