Japan's China policy

Dealing with geography and balancing geopolitics have been two staple factors influencing Japanese foreign policy. Along the same tangent, China's location as a geographic neighbor and the brewing geopolitical rivalry between Tokyo and Beijing in the maritime domain have served as two episodic aspects of Japan's China policy.

These two factors coupled with China's rise to replace Japan as an influential economic actor in various global forums, as well as Japan's increasingly close ties with the United States, are critical facets that have shaped Tokyo's outlook toward Beijing.

With the Shinzo Abe era coming to an end amid Japan's precarious security situation exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, it is critical to look at the trajectory Japan's China policy may take under a new governance. Will the new leadership find a "new normal" in their relationship with China?

A brief review of Japan's China policy under Prime Minister Abe's leadership, the China outlook of the Liberal Democratic Party's top leadership, and trends in domestic political debates will help us answer this question. Nationalistic yet pragmatic

Abe, Japan's longest-serving prime minister, is frequently credited for significantly shaping a bold and dynamic foreign policy, particularly with regards to China. However, with his election to a second term in 2012 coinciding with the revival of heightened tensions with China over the territorial dispute related to the Senkaku Islands in the East

China Sea, Abe's China policy (and to an extent, his foreign policy) has unquestionably been a product of geopolitical circumstances.

Abe's reforms of foreign and security policy, including the ongoing debate over Japan's acquisition of first-strike capabilities, are logical steps in the process of realignment that Tokyo has been undergoing since the end of the Cold War.

The Abe administration's efforts to reach out to China prior to the Covid-19 outbreak along with its explicit attempts to strengthen partnerships with like-minded Indo-Pacific states, particularly the US, Australia and India, follow this trajectory as well.

Therefore, in light of recently intensifying tensions with China and an increasingly complex regional security environment, it seems highly unlikely that there will be a shift away from Japan's existing outlook toward its neighbors, including China.

In the wake of Abe's resignation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian stated that Beijing stands "ready to work with Japan to continue to improve and develop bilateral relations." Similarly, Chinese staterun media outlet Global Times has explicitly conveyed the message that whoever succeeds Abe should largely continue in his footsteps. These indicate that China is keeping a close eye on Japan's emerging political situation, and would like to see a prime minister who will pursue a moderate China policy.

Sino-Japanese ties were at one of their lowest points when Abe took office in 2012. Abe was judicious in his approach to China. He continued to reform Japan's security structure without reacting much or engaging in outright confrontation with the leadership in Beijing. His personality clash with President Xi Jinping was evident, yet he managed it well.

Under Abe, Sino-Japanese relations gradually improved. The credit for this, as Global Times itself has said, lies with the fact that economic, social and cultural cooperation between China and Japan stayed largely positive despite their lingering dispute over the Senkaku Islands (called the Diaoyu Islands by China) and a bolstering of military capabilities on both sides.

Abe's implementation of seikei bunri, a long-standing Japanese principle denoting separation of economics and politics, resulted in a pragmatic China policy. Abe acknowledged the economic benefits of ties with Beijing and chose to deepen them in order to fulfill national interests.

At the same time, he trod a nationalsecurity-driven balance on Japan's China policies in the Indo-Pacific region and Asia at large. China is now one of Japan's most important trading partners, representing almost 20% of its total trade.

Abe's broad ' Indo-Pacific' agenda A cornerstone of Abe's doctrine was enhanced engagement with the world: Japan not only emerged as a leader on the world stage with deepening bilateral ties but also as an active alliance architect.

For instance, on the bilateral front, Tokyo pursued a close relationship with New Delhi, so much so that their ties are widely regarded as a key force shaping Asian politics in the coming era. Beyond Asia, Japan is also set to be one of the first nations to sign a trade deal with the UK post-Brexit. A comprehensive economic partnership with Europe was another hallmark for Abe.

On the multilateral engagement front, Japan emerged as a leader in the TransPacific Partnership after the United States' withdrawal. It also successfully pushed for an "Indo-Pacific" concept and the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) over the last few years. Even with the change in leadership, Tokyo will likely see a continuation of this policy.

However, the unexpected political uncertainty in the midst of Japan's Covid19-induced economic recession may lead to a revision, or pause, of the economic decoupling from China.