Israel’s 50-year time bomb

Why is the Trump administration com pounding Palestinian distress?

IN the quest to change Israel’s constitution, the Netanyahu government is pushing Palestinians to an edge—with the support of the Trump White House.

Recently, a report by the International Monetary Fund ( IMF) warned that “deepening rifts between key stakeholders and surging violence in Gaza further imperil prospects for peace.” That should not come as a surprise anymore.

As the “peace initiatives” of the Trump White House are pushing the region closer to the abyss, new data suggests that under apartheid, South African blacks had more to hope for than Palestinians today.

Unsettling parallels

Between 1994 and 2017, Israeli GDP per capita, adjusted to purchasing power parity, increased by 150 percent; in West Bank and Gaza, the figure was 160 percent. Yet, the Palestinian starting point is so low that progress in living standards is largely a fiction.

In 1994, amid the peace talks in Oslo, Palestinian living standards were only 6.4 percent of the Israeli level of $23,693 (see Figure a). At the time, the hope was that peace would bring increasing stability, which would foster catch-up growth (until the Jewish radicalright assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin triggered still another cycle of violence).

Last year, Palestinian living standards were about 7.3 percent ($2,494) of the Israeli level ($34,135). After more than two decades of new wars and friction, terrorism and restrictions, the catch- up has amounted to less than a percentage point.

Let’s compare the last two decades of apartheid South Africa with the past two decades between Israel and Palestinians. In the mid- 1970s, black South Africans’ annual per capita income relative to white levels was about 8.6 percent; that is, two percent higher relative to the Palestinian level vis- à- vis the Israelis. By the time apartheid came to an end with the formation of a democratic government in 1994, black South Africans’ per capita income relative to the whites had climbed to some 13 percent. In contrast, the comparable Palestinian figure was half of that last year ( see Figure b).

Undermining Israeli constitution

Protests in Gaza ahead of, and turbulence since, Israel’s Independence Day and the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem in May, mark the most serious escalation since the 2014 war. With his decision, President Trump departed from the decades- long US executive branch practice not to recognize Israeli sovereignty over any part of Jerusalem. Meanwhile, a steep decrease in Palestinian Authority and funding to Gaza since 2017 has worsened dangerous humanitarian conditions.

Instead of seeking to alleviate acute distress in the region, the