CityPress - - Business - MOYAGABO MAAKE moyagabo.maake@city­press.co.za

reek vot­ers take to the polls to­day to de­cide whether to ac­cept or re­ject a set of mea­sures pro­posed by Greece’s cred­i­tors be­fore the cred­i­tors will be will­ing to ex­tend another bailout to the es­sen­tially bank­rupt coun­try. Greece de­faulted on a €1.5 bil­lion (R20.4 bil­lion) In­ter­na­tional Mon­e­tary Fund (IMF) re­pay­ment on Tues­day, and other cred­i­tors are wait­ing in the wings.

Two yen-de­nom­i­nated bonds are due to ma­ture on Tues­day, ac­cord­ing to Bloomberg data, and the Fi­nan­cial Times re­ports that the coun­try has debt re­pay­ments of €18.7 bil­lion re­main­ing this year.

Daniel Solomon, an economist at mar­ket re­search firm Euromon­i­tor In­ter­na­tional, said: “I think the prob­a­bil­ity of a com­pre­hen­sive de­fault, as op­posed to just de­fault­ing on the IMF pay­ment, is around 50%.”

An im­me­di­ate bailout hinges on the re­sults of to­day’s ref­er­en­dum, which Prime Min­is­ter Alexis Tsipras called on June 26 amid a dead­lock with cred­i­tors.

Ac­cord­ing to Ned­bank economist Isaac Mat­shego, if Greek vot­ers re­ject cred­i­tors’ pro­pos­als – which in­clude cut­ting high state-pen­sion pay­ments, a move Tsipras’ left­ist gov­ern­ment does not want – this would be seen as a rejection of the euro mon­e­tary union. This would have rip­ple ef­fects for fi­nan­cial mar­kets, most sig­nif­i­cantly for emerg­ing mar­ket cur­ren­cies such as South Africa’s.

Here is how econ­o­mists think Greeks will vote, and how it will af­fect South Africa.

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