More integrated Tshwane makes an outright win less likely
University of Cape Town student Dawie Scholtz has done some number crunching on the likely outcome of the Tshwane election, and the results are interesting.
The Ipsos/eNCA poll has the DA leading the ANC by 10 percentage points, with a predicted outcome of 37% of the total Tshwane vote. Scholtz has analysed the history of the city’s voting districts. His view: there will be no outright winner.
Tshwane, it turns out, is more integrated than other metros and councils, which makes the election less predictable.
“Where most cities and towns are dominated by heavily ANC and heavily DA voting districts, Tshwane has many more that fall somewhere in the middle. The ANC has a bigger voting base, but the fact that Tshwane is even in play suggests all is not well for the ANC,” he says. 1. Solid ANC voting districts (more than 70% of the vote) 2. Voting districts that lean towards the ANC (50% to 70% of the vote) 3. Marginal voting districts (where party wins with less than 50% of the vote) 4. Voting districts that lean towards the DA (50% to 70% of the vote) 5. Solid DA voting districts (more than 70% of the vote)
Scholtz has also analysed voter registration. “The DA was able to grow the total pool of registered voters in its strong areas much more effectively than the ANC. The ANC managed a net gain of just over 12 000 voters. The DA managed a net gain in its stronger areas of just over 28 000 voters,” he says.
“Compounding matters is the fact that the Economic Freedom Fighters [EFF] is strong in Tshwane. It scored 11.5% of the vote in 2014 – far in excess of its 6.3% national average … it means that the defection from the ANC to the EFF is happening en masse in strong ANC areas, and is not even split across the city.”
The DA is texting en masse in its strongholds to offer people lifts to voting stations or to arrange home visits. This is because the 2016 metros election will depend on turnout.
Says Scholtz: “The people in solid DA areas are much more likely to turn out to vote than the people living in solid ANC areas. For the past two elections, the DA has been very effective at bringing out a disproportionately high percentage of the voters in its strongest areas.”
The ANC voter turnout in Tshwane in 2011 was low, but it climbed steeply for the 2014 election. Says Scholtz: “An ANC victory scenario would require it to grow its base turnout significantly, to recapture votes lost to the EFF, and for the DA’s base turnout and the DA’s support in ANC areas to remain stable.”
Scholtz predicts a Tshwane outcome of ANC 44%, DA 40% and EFF 11%.