More in­te­grated Tsh­wane makes an out­right win less likely

CityPress - - News - Dawie Scholtz is a full-time stu­dent at UCT’s Grad­u­ate School of Busi­ness and the Yale School of Man­age­ment. Fol­low him on Twit­ter at @Daw­ieS­choltz for more elec­tion in­sight

Univer­sity of Cape Town stu­dent Dawie Scholtz has done some num­ber crunch­ing on the likely out­come of the Tsh­wane elec­tion, and the re­sults are in­ter­est­ing.

The Ip­sos/eNCA poll has the DA lead­ing the ANC by 10 per­cent­age points, with a pre­dicted out­come of 37% of the to­tal Tsh­wane vote. Scholtz has an­a­lysed the history of the city’s vot­ing dis­tricts. His view: there will be no out­right win­ner.

Tsh­wane, it turns out, is more in­te­grated than other met­ros and coun­cils, which makes the elec­tion less pre­dictable.

“Where most cities and towns are dom­i­nated by heav­ily ANC and heav­ily DA vot­ing dis­tricts, Tsh­wane has many more that fall some­where in the mid­dle. The ANC has a big­ger vot­ing base, but the fact that Tsh­wane is even in play sug­gests all is not well for the ANC,” he says. 1. Solid ANC vot­ing dis­tricts (more than 70% of the vote) 2. Vot­ing dis­tricts that lean to­wards the ANC (50% to 70% of the vote) 3. Mar­ginal vot­ing dis­tricts (where party wins with less than 50% of the vote) 4. Vot­ing dis­tricts that lean to­wards the DA (50% to 70% of the vote) 5. Solid DA vot­ing dis­tricts (more than 70% of the vote)

Scholtz has also an­a­lysed voter reg­is­tra­tion. “The DA was able to grow the to­tal pool of reg­is­tered vot­ers in its strong ar­eas much more ef­fec­tively than the ANC. The ANC man­aged a net gain of just over 12 000 vot­ers. The DA man­aged a net gain in its stronger ar­eas of just over 28 000 vot­ers,” he says.

“Com­pound­ing mat­ters is the fact that the Eco­nomic Free­dom Fight­ers [EFF] is strong in Tsh­wane. It scored 11.5% of the vote in 2014 – far in ex­cess of its 6.3% na­tional av­er­age … it means that the defection from the ANC to the EFF is hap­pen­ing en masse in strong ANC ar­eas, and is not even split across the city.”

The DA is tex­ting en masse in its strongholds to of­fer peo­ple lifts to vot­ing sta­tions or to ar­range home vis­its. This is be­cause the 2016 met­ros elec­tion will de­pend on turnout.

Says Scholtz: “The peo­ple in solid DA ar­eas are much more likely to turn out to vote than the peo­ple liv­ing in solid ANC ar­eas. For the past two elec­tions, the DA has been very ef­fec­tive at bring­ing out a dis­pro­por­tion­ately high per­cent­age of the vot­ers in its strong­est ar­eas.”

The ANC voter turnout in Tsh­wane in 2011 was low, but it climbed steeply for the 2014 elec­tion. Says Scholtz: “An ANC vic­tory sce­nario would re­quire it to grow its base turnout sig­nif­i­cantly, to re­cap­ture votes lost to the EFF, and for the DA’s base turnout and the DA’s sup­port in ANC ar­eas to re­main sta­ble.”

Scholtz pre­dicts a Tsh­wane out­come of ANC 44%, DA 40% and EFF 11%.

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