Trou­bled times, new list­ings and a few tips

Financial Mail - Investors Monthly - - Editor’s Note - MARC HASENFUSS email Marc on hasen­fussm@times­me­dia.co.za

HIS IS OUR LAST edi­tion for 2016, and not a mo­ment too soon. The past year has been a try­ing one for any­one in the markets. If it hadn’t been for the mini-re­cov­ery in re­source stocks I may have been a bro­ken man.

I sup­pose if there is a les­son I’ve learnt in this hor­ri­ble year, it is about keep­ing a longer-term per­spec­tive. Here, I am think­ing back to the 2015 AGM of RECM & Cal­i­bre (RACP). After the pro­ceed­ings a num­ber of us pun­dits were try­ing to con­vince my wife to sell her RACP shares — mainly be­cause most of us be­lieved there were much more ex­cit­ing in­vest­ment op­por­tu­ni­ties than that in­vest­ment com­pany’s dull, deep-value pitch. For­tu­nately, my wife did not re­lent, and RACP has been the stand­out per­former in her port­fo­lio as the over­looked at­tributes of the com­pany’s port­fo­lio slowly came to the fore (thanks mainly to cor­po­rate ac­tion).

Any­way, I am look­ing for­ward to 2017 with a good deal of trep­i­da­tion. There are so many po­lit­i­cal out­comes that could un­ravel be­tween now and the next time I write this note that try­ing to fore­cast what might tran­spire in the markets is a point­less ex­er­cise.

What I have noted in the clos­ing months of this year is that we are see­ing a num­ber of new list­ings com­ing and about to come to mar­ket. Health-care re­tailer Dis-Chem ob­vi­ously caught the mar­ket’s at­ten­tion, but Premier Fish­ing and Pem­bury Schools Group have also sig­nalled in­ten­tions to list.

TOne does, of course, for­get that the JSE is back on its 10-year listing boom cy­cle — hav­ing had rushes to the mar­ket in 1987, 1997 and 2007.

As most read­ers know, most list­ings booms tend not to bring the most en­dur­ing coun­ters to the mar­ket — though the few that press on sto­ically (1987: Spur, Medi­clinic, CMH, Bowler Metcalf and Transpaco) go on to great heights.

Maybe this time it will be dif­fer­ent. Good­ness knows it won’t be easy for com­pa­nies to ap­proach in­vest­ment in­sti­tu­tions with share offers at this jaun­diced junc­ture. Only the most com­pelling growth stories will do.

It is tra­di­tional at the end of the year to pick stocks for the new year. IM won’t go that route as the Fi­nan­cial Mail al­ready does a com­pre­hen­sive Hot Stocks cover story at the start of the new year.

But let me kill two birds with one stone as I have been per­sis­tently pestered by cer­tain read­ers as to the con­stituents of my per­sonal port­fo­lio. I will be cow­er­ing my way into 2017 with the fol­low­ing per­sonal port­fo­lio in tow: Reinet In­vest­ments, Stor-Age Reit, Core­share Pre­fTrax, Tre­ma­ton Cap­i­tal, Tower Prop­erty, Sten­prop, Wescoal, Deneb In­vest­ments, Vu­nani, Ad­vTech, GPI and Blue La­bel Tele­coms.

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