So could this be a safe bet?

A cautionary notice from alternative gaming group Niveus has sparked speculation that gaming giant Tsogo Sun could be considering a takeover bid.

Niveus and Tsogo are both controlled by investment conglomerate Hosken Consolidated Investments.

Niveus owns profitable limited payout machine (LPM) and electronic bingo terminal (EBT) operations. These, in some centres, have eroded the market share of casinos.

Tsogo, which owns large casinos including Suncoast and Montecasino, has previously discounted talk that it was interested in alternative gaming. But Tsogo’s rival, Sun International, made a rewarding tilt into the LPM and EBT market by buying control of operations previously controlled by Grand Parade Investments.

Niveus shares — mostly overlooked by the market — have rallied in recent weeks. Market watchers contend that major issues around a potential deal with Tsogo will be the price pitched at Niveus, which also controls liquor giant KWV Holdings (now in the throes of a takeover bid).

The inferred fair value range for Niveus is estimated to be between R40/share and R50/share. It was trading at R36 earlier this week.