TONY’S LAST WORD

Finweek English Edition - - Advertising & marketing -

WITH THE ECON­OMY boom­ing, and the World Cup loom­ing, ex­pen­di­ture on ad­ver­tis­ing, spon­sor­ship and other forms of mar­ket­ing com­mu­ni­ca­tion looks set to con­tinue grow­ing for the next three years. The por­tents are ob­vi­ously as good for the me­dia, di­rect ben­e­fi­cia­ries of in­creased ad­spend.

But all good things, es­pe­cially eco­nomic, must come to an end. Im­me­di­ately af­ter the World Cup seems a likely time frame. Indicators of fu­ture dif­fi­culty are al­ready ev­i­dent – even as the me­dia en­joy un­prece­dented growth.

The most ob­vi­ous in­di­ca­tor has been the ex­plo­sion of new ti­tles – 123 of them reg­is­tered with the ABC last year, which amounts to an in­crease in its mem­ber ti­tles of 23%. Most of them were mag­a­zines.

Clearly, this means the ad­ver­tis­ing cake is be­ing cut into thin­ner slices, and equally clearly, ex­ist­ing ti­tles have to take some pain. Strong ad­spend growth masks the over­trad­ing is­sue, but watch for a clean-out of weaker ti­tles when times get tough.

How­ever, all pre­dic­tions are sub­ject to a health warn­ing. My last pre­dic­tion re­gard­ing the out­look for ad­ver­tis­ing was that the Gov­ern­ment’s at­tempts to slow down the ap­par­ently over­heated con­sumer­spend­ing spree, would re­sult in slower ad­spend growth this year. Sev­eral in­creases in in­ter­est rates ap­pear to have had lit­tle ef­fect – so far. I may yet turn out to have been right. Tim­ing is ev­ery­thing.

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