All the pres­i­dent’s men

Guess who’s com­ing to cab­i­net

Finweek English Edition - - Letters -

THE ALL-POW­ER­FUL ANC has lost its moral high ground. The ef­fects of a messy ANC lead­er­ship bat­tle, the two cen­tres of power that Ja­cob Zuma’s de­feat of Pres­i­dent Thabo Mbeki cre­ated, as well as the mis­er­able state the pub­lic ser­vice and most pub­lic cor­po­ra­tions now find them­selves in, have trig­gered a pre­car­i­ous kind of in­sta­bil­ity and un­cer­tainty – in South Africa and among much needed in­vestors over­seas.

”The chal­lenge lies in the op­er­a­tional de­part­ments, such as ed­u­ca­tion, health

and jus­tice.”

Cor­rup­tion in the party and among pub­lic ser­vants aside, the 20 000-strong protests against Gov­ern­ment over the past two years – es­pe­cially against slow ser­vice de­liv­ery, crime and HIV/Aids – tell a story about how dis­sat­is­fied com­mu­ni­ties are with the way things have gone. The state of sev­eral Gov­ern­ment de­part­ments – many of which are (Gov­ern­ment now ad­mits) busy grind­ing to a halt – is fur­ther in­sight into what the post-2009 elec­tion Gov­ern­ment will be up against. The very tight spot the global econ­omy finds it­self in (and will con­tinue for some time to come) has ex­acer-

12

FIN­WEEK 28 AU­GUST 2008 bated the con­se­quences of SA’s tricky pol­i­tics and bungling bu­reau­cracy.

Nev­er­the­less, the cli­mate among ANC sup­port­ers is one of ex­pec­ta­tion. The hope in­vested in the new lead­er­ship that swept into power on a pro-poor plat­form is huge.

Zuma’s cab­i­net is go­ing to have to talk a lot less and do even more. It’s go­ing to have to in­volve com­pe­tent and, above all, ac­count­able min­is­ters who in turn ex­pect the same of the pub­lic ser­vants un­der them. Min­is­ters will need to be op­er­a­tionally fo­cused and sys­tems driven. A per­for­mance-re­lated cul­ture in a gov­ern­ment where com­pe­tence and skill are re­warded and not po­lit­i­cal con­nec­tion or pa­tron­age is go­ing to have to be the or­der of the day.

Po­lit­i­cal an­a­lyst and aca­demic Sipho Seepe is up­beat. “This will be a dif­fer­ent era. It will be a turn­ing point away from an elit­ist pres­i­dency, where min­is­ters look down on the masses. Cab­i­net will re­flect peo­ple rooted in struc­tures and com­mu­ni­ties and or­gan­i­sa­tions, not peo­ple se­lec­tively ap­pointed be­cause of their po­lit­i­cal al­le­giance.” Seepe sees the key chal­lenge as ap­point­ing the right direc­tors-gen­eral to do the job – peo­ple are there to work and not serve po­lit­i­cal in­ter­ests.

Though Idasa’s Steven Fried­man is adopt­ing a more wait and see ap­proach, he says there are two sets of pres­sures Zuma is go­ing to have to rec­on­cile when con­sti­tut­ing his gov­ern­ment. First, re­tain­ing some sort of con­ti­nu­ity is go­ing to be vi­tal in an ad­min­is­tra­tion that can’t af­ford to rein­vent the wheel. Sec­ond, peo­ple who sup­ported Zuma are go­ing to have to be suitably re­warded.

Pub­lic pol­icy an­a­lyst Ebrahim KhalilHassen says the easy part is go­ing to be fill­ing the fi­nance port­fo­lio. “There are seven or eight peo­ple who could do a com­pe­tent job, like Pravin Gord­han, Mathews Phosa or Cyril Ramaphosa. Or Trevor Manuel could stay. There is also the pos­si­bil­ity of his DG Le­setja Kganyago get­ting the job. But the chal­lenge lies in the op­er­a­tional de­part­ments, such as ed­u­ca­tion, health and jus­tice.”

While the ANC’s pol­icy launch in Klip­town re­cently was clear about no ma­jor pol­icy change be­ing on the cards, it has ear­marked three pri­or­ity ar­eas that will be pri­or­i­ties for the next gov­ern­ment: ed­u­ca­tion, health and crime. That’s likely to see changes in the way those min­istries are or­gan­ised. But they’ll def­i­nitely go to se­nior cab­i­net mem­bers, if not given two min­is­ters each.

Who then will Zuma call on to help him do the job? Fin­week com­piled a spec­u­la­tive list based on con­ver­sa­tions with seven po­lit­i­cal an­a­lysts and sev­eral ANC in­sid­ers in the so-called Zuma camp and, in some cases, bid­ding for cab­i­net po­si­tions them­selves. Not every­one agreed or wanted to give spe­cific names for each port­fo­lio, but the fol­low­ing list in­cludes some of the names likely to head a Zuma-led cab­i­net in one port­fo­lio or an­other.

CEN­TRAL PLAN­NING MIN­ISTRY IN THE PRES­I­DENCY Baleka Mbete ONE of the mod­i­fi­ca­tions ex­pected to be made to the cur­rent cab­i­net struc­ture is the ad­di­tion of a cen­tral plan­ning min­istry. Al­though it’s still un­clear as to ex­actly how such a min­istry would work, many say it would take the shape of the cur­rent pol­icy unit in the pres­i­dency but be given more power and reach. It would also co-or­di­nate and guide the ex­ec­u­tive as well as gov­ern­ment de­part­ments, en­sur­ing they were on the same path, per­form­ing as they should and spending on tar­get.

As cur­rent Speaker of Par­lia­ment and chair of the ANC, Mbete also heads the party’s pow­er­ful po­lit­i­cal com­mit­tee, which gives di­rec­tion to Cab­i­net and to Par­lia­ment. Mbete is likely to be given a prom­i­nent gov­ern­ment po­si­tion. MIN­IS­TER: PRES­I­DENCY Ebrahim Ebrahim ZUMA ally and ANC na­tional ex­ec­u­tive com­mit­tee (NEC) mem­ber. He chaired Par­lia­ment’s for­eign af­fairs com­mit­tee un­til 2002, when he re­signed to be­come Zuma’s of­fi­cial po­lit­i­cal ad­viser. It’s ex­pected Zuma would keep his ally, who heads the ANC’s sub-com­mit­tee on in­ter­na­tional re­la­tions, at close quar­ters as he nav­i­gates his way through his first term in of­fice. This po­si­tion may well also go to Zweli Mkhize (see health). DEPUTY PRES­I­DENT Kgalema Mot­lanthe CUR­RENTLY deputy pres­i­dent of the party and re­cently de­ployed to Cab­i­net to smooth the tran­si­tion be­tween the Mbeki and Zuma gov­ern­ments, as well as to iden­tify where Gov­ern­ment’s weak­nesses are and what should be done in this re­gard. He’s widely ac­cepted as the ANC’s plan B should Zuma, in the event of a suc­cess­ful prose­cu­tion in his cor­rup­tion trial, fail to be­come pres­i­dent or have to step down. TRADE AND IN­DUS­TRY Mathews Phosa THERE are mixed ideas about whether Phosa, who is the ANC’s trea­surer-gen­eral, will take up a po­si­tion in cab­i­net. His busi­ness ex­pe­ri­ence as well as his pop­u­lar­ity in the ANC means he’s ex­pected to take on one of the eco­nomic port­fo­lios – if not Trea­sury it­self. It’s a post SA Rev­enue Ser­vice Com­mis­sioner Pravin Gord­han is also tipped for, as it’s one of the de­part­ments in line for re­struc­tur­ing. PUB­LIC EN­TER­PRISES Max Sisulu SISULU heads the rul­ing party’s NEC eco­nomic trans­for­ma­tion com­mit­tee. Within the Zuma op­tions his cred­i­bil­ity and eco­nomic skills are highly re­garded and likely to be used in cab­i­net’s eco­nomic clus­ter of min­istries. He’s also one of many who felt side­lined by the Mbeki

ad­min­is­tra­tion, ap­par­ently blam­ing Mbeki af­ter he was passed over as CEO of Denel. PUB­LIC WORKS Collins Cha­bane A vet­eran Lim­popo politi­cian (cur­rently MEC for en­vi­ron­men­tal af­fairs and tourism) whose bid to be­come premier was tor­pe­doed by Mbeki and, iron­i­cally, Ngoako Ra­matl­hodi be­fore he too fell out with the cur­rent Pres­i­dent. Sisulu heads the Zuma NEC’s con­sti­tu­tional af­fairs port­fo­lio com­mit­tee. He’s close to Zuma and ac­com­pa­nied him on a re­cent mis­sion to re-es­tab­lish party-to-party mis­sion talks with Uganda’s Na­tional Re­sis­tance Move­ment. JUS­TICE Jeff Radebe THE cur­rent Trans­port Min­is­ter, Radebe did very well at Polok­wane (ranked sec­ond on the NEC list af­ter Win­nie Madik­ize­laMan­dela). He chairs the NEC’s key pol­icy sub-com­mit­tee and is likely to be re­tained for his ex­pe­ri­ence as well as given a se­nior, high pro­file po­si­tion in cab­i­net. SAFETY AND SE­CU­RITY/ JUS­TICE Pravin Gord­han CUR­RENTLY Com­mis­sioner at Rev­enue, his track record for manag­ing a bu­reau­cracy’s turn­around, ramp­ing up per­for­mance and at­tract­ing and re­tain­ing skills is revered across the ANC’s fac­tional di­vide. He’s touted to be re­de­ployed in one of the min­istries deal­ing with the cur­rently ail­ing crim­i­nal jus­tice sys­tem, most likely Safety & Se­cu­rity, where sys­tems are weak and po­lice ca­pa­bil­ity and morale very low.

Given the ANC’s pol­icy em­pha­sis on crime some­one like Gord­han, who is com­pe­tent in op­er­a­tional sys­tems and hu­man re­sources, is tipped for the job. His con­tract at Rev­enue ends in Novem­ber this year. HEALTH Zweli Mkhize AS KwaZulu-Natal ANC chair, he heads the party’s na­tional health and ed­u­ca­tion sub­com­mit­tee. While the med­i­cal doc­tor turned politi­cian is be­ing touted as a fron­trun­ner to take over from Manto Tsha­bal­ala-Msi­mang, his cur­rent port­fo­lio in the KZN leg­is­la­ture as eco­nomic af­fairs and de­vel­op­ment also stands him in good stead for one of the port­fo­lios in the eco­nomic clus­ter of cab­i­net, says Idasa’s Pamela Kam­bala.

Given the pri­or­ity the party is now putting on health, plus its drive to re­build the health and ed­u­ca­tion desks, Mkhize re­mains the favourite for this se­nior port­fo­lio. Mkhize is also tipped to take the po­si­tion of min­is­ter in the pres­i­dency. COM­MU­NI­CA­TIONS Lyn­dall Shope-Mafole CUR­RENTLY di­rec­tor-gen­eral of the Com­mu­ni­ca­tions Depart­ment, Shope-Mafole is well versed in the work­ings of a depart­ment that has a sig­nif­i­cant amount to achieve by way of com­mit­ments, es­pe­cially to in­crease ac­cess to broad­band tech­nol­ogy and over­see the na­tional mi­gra­tion to dig­i­tal tele­vi­sion within tight time­frames.

Apart from know­ing the drill and hav­ing a rep­u­ta­tion as a hard­work­ing pub­lic ser­vant, she’s known to be an am­bi­tious po­lit­i­cal ac­tivist and from a fam- ily rooted in left­ist pol­i­tics. She’s cur­rently a mem­ber of the rul­ing party’s NEC and heads the in­flu­en­tial sub­com­mit­tee on po­lit­i­cal ed­u­ca­tion and ide­o­log­i­cal work. DE­FENCE Siphiwe Nyanda FOR­MER SA De­fence Force Gen­eral, who re­tired early af­ter clash­ing with Mbeki. Nyanda, who has made his dis­dain for Mbeki un­am­bigu­ously clear as well as his views that Zuma’s cor­rup­tion trial is a con­se­quence of a po­lit­i­cal con­spir­acy against him, was dis­patched by Luthuli House to present the ANC’s emo­tive sub­mis­sion to Par­lia­ment jus­ti­fy­ing why the Scor­pi­ons have to be scrapped.

He’s known to be an in­flu­en­tial and am­bi­tious mem­ber of the NEC and of the Zuma camp and is likely to head the de­fence and for­eign af­fairs clus­ter in cab­i­net. He heads the NEC’s peace and sta­bil­ity sub­com­mit­tee. FOR­EIGN AF­FAIRS Zola Sk­weyiya SK­WEYIYA’s ex­pe­ri­ence and pop­u­lar­ity in the rul­ing party

struc­tures and rep­u­ta­tion as a cham­pion of the poor (he called pub­licly for a ba­sic in­come grant, which Mbeki re­jected) mean he’s likely to be re­tained and re­warded with a se­nior po­si­tion in cab­i­net, such as for­eign af­fairs. He’s stepped into that port­fo­lio on oc­ca­sions when in­cum­bent Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma hasn’t been avail­able. How­ever, there are many who be­lieve Sk­weyiya will re­main Min­is­ter of So­cial De­vel­op­ment, es­pe­cially be­cause his age will prob­a­bly only al­low him one more term. ED­U­CA­TION Blade Nz­i­mande (SACP gen­eral sec­re­tary) FOR­MER ed­u­ca­tion min­is­ter Kader As­mal may have called him a “po­lit­i­cal bigot” but in­clud­ing the sec­re­tary gen­eral of the SA Com­mu­nist Party in the cab­i­net would not only con­firm to the ANC’s al­liance part­ner is be­ing taken se­ri­ously but also re­ward him for spear­head­ing a tire­less cam­paign to get Zuma into the top ANC job.

Nev­er­the­less, he was highly re­garded as chair of Par­lia­ment’s port­fo­lio com­mit­tee and has, since Polok­wane, be­come the ANC’s point man on ed­u­ca­tion. For ex­am­ple, at the party’s postPolok­wane pol­icy cam­paign – where ed­u­ca­tion, crime and health emerged as the key fo­cus – Nz­i­mande and Ed­u­ca­tion Min­is­ter Naledi Pan­dor shared the podium at the launch. Chang­ing of the guard?

Pos­si­ble change: Ed­u­ca­tion is one port­fo­lio that may well be split into two. Presided over by two min­is­ters: one over­see­ing school­ing, the other ter­tiary ed­u­ca­tion. That could see cur­rent Ed­u­ca­tion Min­is­ter Naledi Pan­dor also be­ing re­tained in the port­fo­lio.

Fik­ile Mbalula, who re­cently ex­ited his post as ANC Youth League leader and who cur­rently heads the NEC’s or­gan­i­sa­tion-build­ing and cam­paigns sub­com­mit­tee, is tipped for cab­i­net but prob­a­bly in a deputy min­is­ter po­si­tion. He’ll un­doubt­edly be re­warded for be­ing in­stru­men­tal in Zuma’s suc­cess­ful Polok­wane cam­paign or, as he puts it, “lead­ing the revo­lu­tion” against Mbeki. HOME AF­FAIRS Angie Mot­shekga CUR­RENTLY Gaut­eng’s ed­u­ca­tion min­is­ter and pres­i­dent of the ANC Women’s League. Aside from be­ing an ar­dent sup­porter of Zuma and piv­otal in the or­gan­i­sa­tion en­dors­ing Zuma’s pres­i­den­tial bid, she’s also been in­stru­men­tal in rais­ing money for his cor­rup­tion trial in the Free State (she’s NEC co-or­di­na­tor for the prov­ince). She’s a se­nior ANC mem­ber and of its na­tional work­ing com­mit­tee with gov­ern­ment ex­pe­ri­ence un­der her belt. ARTS AND CUL­TURE Pallo Jor­dan WHILE he’s not ex­pected to be pro­moted to a more high pro­file cab­i­net post, he’s re­garded as an in­tel­lec­tual that will pro­vide some con­ti­nu­ity in the tran­si­tion from one cab­i­net to the next. De­spite oc­cu­py­ing the same po­si­tion in Mbeki’s Cab­i­net, his per­son­al­ity clash with Mbeki earned him the rep­u­ta­tion of be­ing prin­ci­pled and out­spo­ken in the Zuma camp – not an Mbeki-ite. He heads the ANC’s con­sti­tu­tional af­fairs sub­com­mit- tee. Chairs of sub­com­mit­tees are usu­ally well, if not com­pletely, rep­re­sented in cab­i­net. LABOUR Enoch Godong­wana A for­mer East­ern Cape fi­nance MEC, he was sacked in 2004 by Premier Nosimo Balindlela. That move was largely in­ter­preted as a fac­tional divi­sion be­tween two camps: one loyal to Makhenkesi Stofile (read Zuma camp), the other to Balindlela (read Mbeki camp). Godong­wana was ap­pointed by Zuma to head the ANC NEC’s labour sub­com­mit­tee.

The Pil­lay Com­mis­sion into cor­rup­tion in the East­ern Cape al­legedly iden­ti­fies Godong­wana in multi-mil­lion rand ir­reg­u­lar­i­ties. How­ever, in the cur­rent era of po­lit­i­cal con­spir­a­cies, fac­tion­al­ism and po­lit­i­cally tainted bu­reau­cra­cies be­ing used to jus­tify just about any­thing, it’s un­clear what, if any­thing, will be­come of that. HOUS­ING Maite Nkoana-Masha­bane MEM­BER of the NEC’s na­tional work­ing com­mit­tee and cur-

rently Lim­popo MEC for lo­cal gov­ern­ment and hous­ing. She’s con­sid­ered by many to have bright prospects and could be brought in as a ju­nior min­is­ter. IN­TEL­LI­GENCE Lindiwe Sisulu FOR­MER In­tel­li­gence Min­is­ter and cur­rently Hous­ing Min­is­ter, she’s man­aged to strad­dle the Zuma/Mbeki di­vide and ac­quired a high po­si­tion on both the Zuma and Mbeki NEC lists at the Polok­wane con­fer­ence. She’s tipped to be re­turned to in­tel­li­gence as a se­nior cab­i­net min­is­ter.

Her ex­pe­ri­ence in that port­fo­lio and rep­u­ta­tion for hard work and over­haul­ing sys­tems will be put to good use in a min­istry where Team Zuma wants an over­haul be­cause it’s seen to have been driven by the Mbeki camp’s pol­i­tics. Sisulu chairs the ANC’s in­flu­en­tial trans­for­ma­tion sub­com­mit­tee. TRANS­PORT Jeremy Cronin (SACP deputy sec­re­tary gen­eral) HE’s not la­belled an Mbeki sup­porter, but he has cau­tioned against blind loy­alty. But his rep­u­ta­tion is that of an in­tel­lect, a “friend of the poor” as well as a man of prin­ci­ple. He’s ranked fifth on the NEC’s list. That, cou­pled with the fact that he cur­rently chairs Par­lia­ment’s trans­port port­fo­lio com­mit­tee very suc­cess­fully, bodes well for his ap­point­ment to a Zuma cab­i­net.

His in­ti­mate knowl­edge of the is­sues means he could hit the ground run­ning, which is a big plus given the Trans­port Depart­ment’s in­fra­struc­ture, re­cap­i­tal­i­sa­tion and 2010 com­mit­ments. SCI­ENCE AND TECH­NOL­OGY Malusi Gi­gaba THE jury is out as to whether he’ll be re­tained, as he has mixed re­views about his ten­ure as Deputy Home Af­fairs Min­is­ter. Nev­er­the­less, he’s young, has gov­ern­ment ex­pe­ri­ence and se­cured 13th place on the NEC’s list. Those who be­lieve he’ll make it back, agree that he’ll be given a port­fo­lio, but with a lower pro­file. PRO­VIN­CIAL AND LO­CAL GOV­ERN­MENT No­sizwe Md­lad­lana-Rout­ledge (SACP Polit­buro mem­ber) ASIDE from hav­ing KwaZu­luNatal roots, as Zuma does, her bruis­ing en­counter with Mbeki and Health Min­is­ter Tsha­bal­alaMsi­mang, as well as her out­spo­ken stance against the pair, cat­a­pulted her into the lime­light last year and ce­mented her rep­u­ta­tion as a feisty, com­mit­ted and re­spected politi­cian. Af­ter Mbeki gave her the boot – for what she calls “speak­ing truth to power” and for what Mbeki calls be­ing “un­able to work with the col­lec­tive” – she re­turned to Par­lia­ment’s back­benches.

She’s cur­rently a mem­ber of the sci­ence and tech­nol­ogy port­fo­lio com­mit­tee and is an arch ac­tivist within grass­roots women’s or­gan­i­sa­tions. Given the pri- or­ity gov­ern­ment wants to give to lo­cal gov­ern­ment, es­pe­cially in driv­ing its health and ed­u­ca­tion pol­icy, she’s re­garded as the kind of se­nior work­horse needed to get that tier of gov­ern­ment work­ing. She’s a ris­ing star in the ANC’s health and ed­u­ca­tion sub­com­mit­tee un­der Mkhize and putting her in lo­cal gov­ern­ment would dove­tail well with the work of that com­mit­tee.

This depart­ment is likely to be split, so that Tra­di­tional Af­fairs are man­aged by a dif­fer­ent min­is­ter. EN­VI­RON­MEN­TAL AF­FAIRS AND TOURISM Makhenkesi Stofile THE cur­rent Min­is­ter of Sport and for­mer premier of the East­ern Cape (un­til 2004) topped the Zuma camp’s list of NEC names put up at the Polok­wane con­fer­ence. He’s cred­ited with neu­tral­is­ing the East­ern Cape in the run-up to Polok­wane when it was lean­ing to­wards Mbeki.

How­ever, the jury is now out as to how the find­ings of the Pil­lay Com­mis­sion’s re­port into cor­rup­tion in the East­ern Cape, which al­legedly fin­gers Stofile, will im­pact on his fu­ture.

Baleka Mbete

Ebrahim Ebrahim

Kgalema Mot­lanthe

Mathews Phosa

Pravin Gord­han

Max Sisulu

Zweli Mkhize

Collins Cha­bane

Lyn­dall Shope-Mafole

Jeff Radebe

Zola Sk­weyiya

Siphiwe Nyanda

Enoch Godong­wana

Blade Nz­i­mande

Maite Nkoana-Masha­bane

Angie Mot­shekga

Lindiwe Sisulu

Pallo Jor­dan

Jeremy Cronin

Malusi Gi­gaba

No­sizwe Md­lad­lana-Rout­ledge

Makhenkesi Stofile

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from South Africa

© PressReader. All rights reserved.