Based on data from the US Census Business Dynamics Statistics, the Kauffman Foundation study’s authors evaluated the Start-Up Visa’s job creation potential under three possible scenarios:
If Start- Up Visas were available in 2014, 75 000 would be filled, and after four years, 37 108 firms would still be operating.
After 10 years, nearly 100 000 companies will have reached four years and aged out of the visa programme. New companies also would have been added over the 10-year period, growing the denominator of new firms by more than the number of available visas. Companies founded by Start-Up Visa holders would create between 500 000 and 889 000 jobs, equating to 0.5% to almost 1% of GDP, respectively.
The third scenario assumes that half of the age four firms would be technology and engineering firms established by H-1B holders, who typically are employed in the science, technology and engineering sectors. Previous research has shown that immigrantfounded technology and engineering start-ups employ an average of 21.37 people per firm. This scenario would create, at minimum, 1.6m jobs over 10 years, or 1.6% of GDP, among companies that age out of the Start-Up Visa programme.