A state of limbo

Should Pres­i­dent Ja­cob Zuma dig in in a bid to con­sol­i­date his power, it could have even direr con­se­quences for the coun­try’s econ­omy.

Finweek English Edition - - THE PESSIMIST’S GUIDE: POLITICS - By Natalie Greve

af­ter he dra­mat­i­cally sur­vived a surprise move by a fac­tion of the ANC’s Na­tional Ex­ec­u­tive Com­mit­tee (NEC) to un­seat him in Novem­ber, pun­dits seem to agree that South Africans will have to resign them­selves to the fact that much-ma­ligned Pres­i­dent Ja­cob Zuma will likely see out most of 2017 in the presidential seat.

While spec­u­la­tion re­mains around his continued po­lit­i­cal sur­vival be­yond the ANC’s na­tional elec­tive con­fer­ence, tak­ing place in De­cem­ber 2017, it ap­pears the pres­i­dent’s in­flu­en­tial de­trac­tors in the rul­ing party have taken the failed NEC “coup” as an in­di­ca­tion that lit­tle can be done to oust the two-term party and state leader be­fore the end of the year.

He is there­after ex­pected to make a “man­aged exit” in the first half of 2018 – prior to the 2019 na­tional elec­tions.

Daryl Glaser, as­so­ci­ate pro­fes­sor of pol­i­tics at Wits Univer­sity, tells fin­week that ANC pub­lic pol­i­tick­ing is likely to re­main in limbo over the next 12 months, with lit­tle pol­icy de­ci­sion-mak­ing.

“I can’t be­lieve that Zuma will at­tempt to run for an un­prece­dented third term as leader of the ANC. I’m as­sum­ing that a whole lot of peo­ple in the ANC have de­cided to sit out the re­main­der of Zuma’s term as pres­i­dent of the ANC in the hope that the party can go into the next elec­tion in 2019 un­der a new leader,” he com­ments.

Lit­tle re­form

Sup­port­ing Glaser’s po­si­tion, No­mura re­search an­a­lyst Peter At­tard Mon­talto says the out­come of the NEC meet­ing

Daryl Glaser As­so­ci­ate pro­fes­sor of pol­i­tics at Wits Univer­sity

Peter At­tard Mon­talto Re­search an­a­lyst at No­mura

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