Capital Economics expects that the US-China trade war will result in a y/y decline in exports from commodity exporters in emerging markets (EM). Recent figures suggest that trade tensions have not yet had “a big effect on actual EM trade”, said the economic research consultancy in a recent report. But it warned that “most of the big tariff announcements made by the US have yet to come into effect”. Tariffs to be imposed on 24 September “will affect 1.1% of total world exports, more than half the sum of all of the measures announced so far”. It expects developed market growth to slow in 2019 and 2020, further depressing EM export volumes.