THE UGLY

Finweek English Edition - - In Brief -

Cap­i­tal Eco­nomics ex­pects that the US-China trade war will re­sult in a y/y de­cline in ex­ports from com­mod­ity ex­porters in emerg­ing mar­kets (EM). Re­cent fig­ures sug­gest that trade ten­sions have not yet had “a big ef­fect on ac­tual EM trade”, said the eco­nomic re­search con­sul­tancy in a re­cent re­port. But it warned that “most of the big tar­iff an­nounce­ments made by the US have yet to come into ef­fect”. Tar­iffs to be im­posed on 24 Septem­ber “will af­fect 1.1% of to­tal world ex­ports, more than half the sum of all of the mea­sures an­nounced so far”. It ex­pects de­vel­oped mar­ket growth to slow in 2019 and 2020, fur­ther de­press­ing EM ex­port vol­umes.

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