Zim mil­i­tary chief rat­tles sabres af­ter Mnan­gagwa ax­ing

Pretoria News - - OPINION - PETA THORNYCROFT

ZIMBABWE’S armed forces boss, Con­stan­tine Chi­wenga made head­lines when he ad­dressed a press con­fer­ence in Harare on Mon­day. He was wob­bling on about sav­ing the “rev­o­lu­tion”, so that Zanu-PF can win elec­tions again next year.

Most know he sup­ports Em­mer­son Mnan­gagwa, sacked as vice-pres­i­dent last week be­cause Robert Mu­gabe lost his tem­per af­ter a few peo­ple booed his wife, Grace, at a rally 10 days ago.

So the fear is, in some quar­ters, sol­diers will go on the ram­page and the army will have a shoot-out with the po­lice who sup­port Grace Mu­gabe and her G40 fac­tion in Zanu-PF.

This squab­bling within Zanu-PF is about who suc­ceeds Robert Mu­gabe, who will be 94 when he stands for re-elec­tion next year.

Em­mer­son Mnan­gagwa, 75, wants to suc­ceed Mu­gabe. He never made a se­cret of that.

He felt cheated in 2004, when Mu­gabe, ap­pointed Joice Mu­juru, 62, as the first woman vice-pres­i­dent of Zimbabwe. She was wife to the one man Mu­gabe feared, lib­er­a­tion war-time com­man­der, Solomon Mu­juru.

Mnan­gagwa was in­fu­ri­ated. And time was tick­ing. Mu­juru was pop­u­lar, much younger then he, she didn’t, like him, have a bad hu­man rights record, and, yes, she was a woman.

But Mu­juru could also eas­ily win a par­lia­men­tary seat in her home area and he was beaten in two elec­tions by the op­po­si­tion Move­ment for Demo­cratic Change (MDC) can­di­date.

So Joice built up sup­port and most prov­inces sup­ported her ahead of the Zanu-PF congress in 2014.

Mnan­gagwa went into an al­liance with Grace Mu­gabe who has the most ex­pen­sive life style Zim­bab­weans have ever seen.

So part of the plan to get rid of Mu­juru meant Grace Mu­gabe had to get into a top post in Zanu-PF. So she was first ma­nip­u­lated into lead­er­ship of the Zanu-PF women’s league. Then she was awarded a phoney PhD at the Univer­sity of Zimbabwe – Mu­juru had re­cently been awarded her PhD af­ter years of study – and then Grace be­gan a se­ries of ral­lies around Zimbabwe telling out­ra­geous lies about Mu­juru.

That was that. Mu­juru lost her post in Zanu-PF at the party congress, and she was then ex­pelled from the party ac­cused of want­ing to mur­der Mu­gabe, com­mit a coup d’etat, etc.

Grace Mu­gabe was then safe from Mu­juru who she feared might be more pop­u­lar then her hus­band.

And her ally in the oust­ing of Mu­juru – Mnan­gagwa – be­came vice-pres­i­dent. Fi­nally, 10 years later then he planned.

So Chi­wenga’s press con­fer­ence was not about democ­racy: he made it clear pre­vi­ously that he, as a se­nior pub­lic ser­vant, was par­ti­san, that he and his col­leagues would not recog­nise the MDC if it won power at the polls. He would not salute MDC leader, Mor­gan Ts­van­gi­rai, if he be­came pres­i­dent of Zimbabwe.

His press con­fer­ence on Mon­day was about his pal Em­mer­son.

Chi­wenga would say, in con­fi­dence, (not on any pub­lic plat­form) that he be­lieves Mnan­gagwa should in­herit the pres­i­den­tial crown when Mu­gabe dies or quits.

He would not even dare say Mnan­gagwa should take over now, be­cause Mu­gabe is too old. But that is what many be­lieve, es­pe­cially those in the busi­ness com­mu­nity as Mu­gabe has been a dis­as­trous pres­i­dent at every level.

Zimbabwe has no cur­rency, can’t set­tle for­eign and do­mes­tic debt, there is no money in the banks, and, the health sec­tor col­lapsed and even ed­u­ca­tion, es­pe­cially in the ru­ral ar­eas, is much worse then most re­alise.

So Chi­wenga, sur­rounded by mem­bers of the air force and other se­nior mil­i­tary men, is fu­ri­ous that Mnan­gagwa has been kicked out. That many of their al­lies within Zanu-PF are now un­der threat and may be purged.

He, Chi­wenga, might be on his way out too. His con­tract ex­pired in July.

No one is sure whether the army would in­deed chal­lenge the po­lice and move against Mu­gabe. But the fear is there.

Grace Mu­gabe’s G40 fac­tion doesn’t nec­es­sar­ily want her to suc­ceed Mu­gabe, as pres­i­dent, they al­most cer­tainly know that is a step too far, and she is ir­ra­tional and un­bal­anced and too greedy.

But they want her there as vice-pres­i­dent to pro­tect Mu­gabe un­til he dies, or can­not rule any longer, and then they will prob­a­bly want de­fence min­is­ter Sid­ney Sek­era­mayi in his place.

At this stage, to call on the “rev­o­lu­tion”, as Chi­wenga has done, has un­known con­se­quences. Mnan­gagwa, on his own, can’t win elec­tions. In an al­liance with the MDC, Mu­juru and oth­ers, maybe he could.

The po­lit­i­cal wa­ters in Harare are murky. Many com­men­ta­tors are not sure what to say. But David Coltart, Zimbabwe’s pre-emi­nent hu­man rights lawyer, who learnt pol­i­tics as a newly qual­i­fied young man when he acted for many op­po­si­tion lead­ers who were bru­talised by Mu­gabe and Zanu-PF shortly af­ter in­de­pen­dence, said: “Zimbabwe faces a grave con­sti­tu­tional cri­sis. For all the am­bi­gu­ity in Gen­eral Chi­wenga’s state­ment, it chal­lenges Pres­i­dent Mu­gabe, ei­ther to turn his back on his wife and other mem­bers of the G40 fac­tion, or face the wrath of the mil­i­tary…” – In­de­pen­dent For­eign Ser­vice

Mu­juru lost her post in Zanu-PF at the party congress, and she was then ex­pelled from the party ac­cused of want­ing to mur­der Mu­gabe, com­mit a coup d’etat, etc

PIC­TURE: AP

Zimbabwe’s Army Com­man­der Con­stan­tine Chi­wenga ad­dresses a press con­fer­ence in Harare. Chi­wenga said that ‘the mil­i­tary, will not hes­i­tate to step in’, days af­ter Pres­i­dent Robert Mu­gabe fired a vice-pres­i­dent who en­joyed the sup­port of the army and once viewed as a po­ten­tial suc­ces­sor.

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