riskMap analysis of sub-saharan african countries for 2013
The country has one of the continent’s most liberal constitutions and most attractive investment regimes. Although its corruption levels remain among the lowest in subSaharan Africa, corruption allegations have increased in tandem with foreign investor interest in offshore oil and gas exploration. Despite rich mineral resources, prospects for rapid economic growth are limited, and the redistribution of white-owned land remains a source of tension.
External political threats to Angola’s regime are limited. Control Risks considers that the current political order is largely sustainable while oil revenues continue to grow. Thereafter, the regime will be subjected to an increasing range of political risks. In the meantime, a combination of Angola’s reliance on externally sourced oil revenues and pressing demands for social development will continue to generate tensions and could affect the operating environment for foreign investors.
Tanzania is one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most politically stable countries. Since abandoning socialism in the ‘80s, it has instituted significant reforms and improvements to the business environment. The status of the semiautonomous archipelago of Zanzibar remains the main source of political friction.
Zambia is one of Africa’s most liberalised economies, although persistent corruption, a culture of business secrecy and an inadequate infrastructure have previously hampered opportunities for foreign business. President Sata succeeded Banda on the back of a strong anti-corruption campaign, putting pressure on him to pursue all allegations of corruption and establish systems and structures to support anti-graft initiatives.
The persistent civil war that marred the county’s transition has come to an end, and the Ninja rebel group finally disarmed in 2008. The business and political elite is small and political patronage is a common problem. Bureaucracy is interminable and corruption rife.
The country’s negative aspects are magnified with corruption indicators worsening and President Museveni’s increasingly autocratic manner underlining the weakness of government institutions. 2013 is likely to be decisive for the oil sector, where progress has stalled and political risks are rapidly increasing as the sector becomes a staging ground for factional disputes.