Deliver us from the stasis of the nation

Friday. Deadline day. Groundhog Day for me. Another column about an almost inescapable subject — when will Cyril Ramaphosa be able to tip President Jacob Zuma out of the Union Buildings? Why is it taking so long? Is Zuma winning? Is Ramaphosa a coward? I don’t think he is at all. But he plays his politics really tight. Not a murmur. After he beat Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to the ANC leadership in December he went dead quiet. Then he went to Davos in January and couldn’t stop telling the world how much South Africa had suddenly changed for the better. Now he’s back and its all dead quiet again.

I said here at the end of December that Ramaphosa would have to give the state of the nation address at the opening of parliament on February 8 — that’s this Thursday, by the way — or risk being seen as weak. But there seems to be no progress. Zuma, barring a miracle, will open parliament.

But Ramaphosa’s not weak. Like Zuma, he is being strategic, perhaps more so. At the risk of repeating myself, to win the ANC presidency he beat one of the most unpleasant political machines in the world.

For both men, though, the next few days are filled with import. They will each experience moments of infinite danger. The next few days will define them.

Zuma’s a tough old bugger and he is not going to go anywhere without a fight. You can see it happening. His people are briefing journalists about a fightback. There’s even talk of a national general council (almost a full conference) to get rid of Ramaphosa.

That’s probably just kite-flying, and the Save Zuma campaign, such as it is, is a ragtag affair unlikely to ignite much public interest, or even support from inside the party. But put yourself in Zuma’s shoes. What possible good can come to him if he leaves office early? The answer is none. It just means he and his flunkies and cronies go to prison earlier.

The answer is also that he can do little more than delay the inevitable, but even then, who knows? Waiting is an active tactic. A week is a long time in politics.

Still, there is a confluence of time and events that might move him. A serious threat of impeachment and loss of benefits would be a jolt, as would a serious possibility that a simple majority of MPs could turn on him in the vote of no confidence sponsored by the EFF, scheduled for February 22.

Or does he step down in two weeks’ time if the NPA dismisses his case against prosecution and indicts him for the fraud charges from way back?

Ramaphosa is being quiet, but I doubt it means he is doing nothing. He will have his own planners and plotters.

He must know he has the national executive committee numbers to recall Zuma, but his problem is that once that is done he will have to clean up the blood on the floor.

Also, with Zuma gone and even with a government of his own, Ramaphosa becomes everyone’s prime target, with almost half his own party and all of the opposition trying constantly to undermine him. Who needs that?

That’s what you get when you have state power. I reckon Ramaphosa is already reconciled to Zuma opening parliament. But I can’t see it being part of a deal. It is simply the absence of momentum. There simply is no doable deal. You can’t make any promise to Zuma that would give him the comfort he requires. When he goes he will have to face the law. Worse, he may have to face the law even if he doesn’t go, but if the NPA does decide to prosecute him, he’ll hold on to office even tighter than he already has.

We know enough about the man now. He’ll delay everything for as long as possible. He has nothing to lose by being stubborn.

His speech on Thursday will be a farce. If by chance it isn’t, and if there’s a grain of good sense in it, then we’ll know Ramaphosa has had a big hand in writing it and it’ll strengthen his position.

That, in fact, might be how this ends. Zuma gets to stay in office as long as the constitution and law enforcement allow, and Ramaphosa writes the script. That’s a recipe for another very messy year, but it’ll still be a hell of a lot better than last year.