Gauteng’s Covid plea raises questions on what the past 100 days have achieved

The Gauteng government’s plea to whomever is in charge nowadays for a return to level 5-style lockdown regulations could be the torpedo that finally sinks any notion that the “war” over Covid-19 would be a textbook affair, proceeding according to the “risk-adjusted strategy” handed down as our road map out of the pandemic. Much has changed since those early days, with lockdown fatigue heavy upon us now and the economy nearobliterated. But Covid itself shows no inclination to stick to a straightforward script. Yesterday marked the 100th day of lockdown, and yet there is a sense that the real drama has yet to begin. We are, at the last telling, at advanced level 3 of the strategy, which entails a limited opening up of most sectors with the exception of places like gyms, while at restaurants you now have to fill in a form and drink your wine before or after, at home. The roads are back to their pre-lockdown near state of chaos, and the taxi bosses have taken it upon themselves to reinterpret the law as it suits them, driving up the wrong lane of civic duty and responsibility with impunity.

The great scramble for President Cyril Ramaphosa’s R500bn bonanza is well and truly under way. Meanwhile, an underground network of dealers benefits from an illicit tobacco-smuggling network worth billions, so the criminal underworld is a sure Covid19 winner, while the lifting of the booze ban needlessly helps to fill hospital beds that cannot be occupied by someone who may be more deserving.

How Gauteng intends putting a lid back on this seething cauldron of disease and rampant unemployment is anyone’s guess. The health

MEC, Bandile Masuku, in arguing for a strategy of

“intermittent lockdowns’’, cites the examples of

Melbourne, Australia, and Israel, where it has been used.

Apparently this approach helps the health authorities to regroup and ready themselves for the next wave of infections. There have been studies showing that the strategy can work, but this is not Melbourne.

If what Gauteng wants is curbs on some of the less essential aspects of public life, such as restrictions on religious and social gatherings, shorter liquor trading hours and limits on taxi loads, few would demur.

But if the politicians think they are going to be able to

“switch off”, and on, a province that is the mainstay of our economy, this could be a much tougher task than it was in April, when the whole country was brought to a halt. The practical considerations of shutting down Gauteng, while neighbouring provinces remain open, seem immense.

President Cyril Ramaphosa again this week emphasised that a new lockdown was not on the cards, saying the issue of jobs is concerning to the government.

Any government that asks to be elected would be very worried about the 31% unemployment rate the president cited. Elsewhere we report that the economy could shrink by as much as 50% in the second quarter.

Every death is a sadness, and every premature death a tragedy. It is axiomatic that lockdown can play a major part in helping a country flatten the curve, and curtail the number of deaths. But an equally important attribute of the lockdown is that it provides time for health resources to be marshalled, and for societies to be taught about the danger and how to minimise the chance of infection. Has the time provided by the lockdown been used wisely, to get ready, or has time been squandered, leaving a trail of joblessness and economic dislocation as the only legacy of a costly, yet ultimately futile, exercise? When the country’s richest and best-resourced province is signalling that it is not ready and that only the bluntest of blunt instruments, a lockdown, will suffice, then one may wonder what can be done in two weeks or a month that couldn’t be achieved in the 100 days that have already passed.

As the province enters the storm, one hopes that sage counsel will prevail, and that whatever steps are taken, the consequences will have been fully assessed.

Has the time provided by the lockdown been used wisely, to get ready?