Can South Africa help troubled Lesotho?
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LESOTHO, the mountain kingdom in the belly of South Africa, is teetering on a political knife edge. Following the election on June 3 of Tom Thabane as prime minister, we were all waiting to see what the army would do. It seemed probable it would take steps to destabilise the country, arrest the prime minister on some spurious charges, or do away with him altogether, to scupper his inauguration (which took place on Friday).
However the story unfolded, it was always going to be dramatic. Last weekend the first lady survived an attack on her home, which led to the unexpected statement from our Minister of International Relations last Sunday that South Africa would not tolerate a coup in our backyard. Three days after her warning to Lesotho’s military, the first lady was shot and killed on Wednesday night, just prior to the inauguration.
Well-placed supporters of Thabane have alleged that the military’s plan was to kill First Lady Dipolelo (who was in a bitter divorce from Thabane), then arrest Thabane himself, accusing him of her murder. That way they could get him behind bars without it being called a coup.
In the recent past there have been numerous murders of Thabane’s supporters, allegedly carried out by the military, and Thabane himself has survived numerous assassination attempts by the military – first as prime minister, then as leader of the opposition. If that was the plan, it didn’t quite work out.
The highly politicised military, which supported previous prime minister Pakalitha Mosisili, who lost a no-confidence motion in parliament and then the snap election on June 3, will likely continue their efforts to destabilise the kingdom with its population of two million. They had, after all, orchestrated the August 2014 coup which brought Mosisili to power.
SADC had attempted to deal with the situation by establishing a Commission of Inquiry, which strongly recommended security sector reforms meant to depoliticise the state security sector, but none of those recommendations were implemented. The result has been a predatory military 1 000 strong, which has violated human rights in the kingdom with impunity. Even during the recent polls the army was deployed at voting stations to intimidate voters.
Virtually since independence from Britain in 1966, Lesotho’s military has largely had a destabilising effect on the country’s democracy. The contemporary period has been the worst, with destabilisation leading to three elections in the past five years.
Even if Thabane jacks up his security with loyal protectors, it wouldn’t take much to rock the political boat, as Thabane’s party only won a razor thin majority; and if the military acted to get rid of three members of parliament, the government would collapse and another snap election would have to be called.
The stakes are high in terms of the contestation for political power in Lesotho, as it is the most obvious avenue to financial security, given the limited economy which primarily produces textiles and pumps water to South Africa. As a result, 30 political parties contested the June 3 elections.
South Africa is well placed to impact positively on the current situation, with Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa as the SADC mandated facilitator in Lesotho, tasked with ensuring that the recommendations of the Commission of Inquiry start to be implemented. It will now be in Thabane’s interest to ensure the reform of the security sector is fasttracked, to prevent further politically inspired assassinations.
Some analysts have even argued that Lesotho should consider whether it needs an army at all, and whether it would be worth adopting the Mauritius model. Mauritius does not have a standing army, but all military, police and security functions are carried out by the police.
If Thabane shows a real willingness to implement SADC’S proposed reforms, which would be perceived as threatening to the current power of the security sector, his life and that of his inner circle will certainly be at risk.