Fifty shades of red
NUMSA SPLIT: RACE TO RIDE RISING CRIMSON TIDE IN POLITICS
Now in government, the ANC’s socialist allies have faded to pale, pink shadows of their former revolutionary selves – now Numsa’s ejection from Cosatu seems set to cast a dark pall of red over leftist politics.
Metalworkers’ union Numsa’s expulsion from Cosatu could well have a greater political and economic impact than the formation of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) last year. There is no doubt we are witnessing the birth of a new political movement that could eventually seriously undermine the ANC’s political dominance.
It could lead to a very different political landscape in five years – possibly even a coalition government in 2019.
Crimson pimpernel
One question is yet to be answered: will Zwelinzima Vavi play a leading role in this new political formation? He is officially still the general secretary of Cosatu, but few would put bets on him staying in Cosatu if Numsa remains expelled.
Vavi is an experienced and wily politician with abundant charisma. Numsa general secretary Irvin Jim is no less talented and the two could become a powerful team, complemented by the considerable organisational acumen of Karl Cloete, Jim’s deputy.
The SA Communist Party (SACP), supposed to be the real socialists, will feel the pain of a proper socialist and workerist party in opposition. The SACP lobbied for Numsa’s expulsion, but it almost certainly overplayed its hand.
This will undermine an important support base for President Jacob Zuma.
His record as leader of the ANC is abysmal. During his seven years as leader, the party had three major defections: Cope, the EFF and now Numsa.
The Numsa leaders have indicated that they plan to launch a Democratic Front next month – evoking the memory of the popular United Democratic Front of the 1980s, a broad movement of apartheid opponents.
A workers’ and socialist party with Numsa at its centre is likely to be launched next year and will be part of this front.
The municipal elections are scheduled for 2016. The new Democratic Front would thus have more than a year to mobilise.
Already the leadership of seven Cosatu unions have indicated they could follow Numsa. Competition among unions will probably lead to more militant wage demands, especially in the public sector.
Reliable partner
The influence of Cosatu in government was disastrous in recent years.
Numsa may be radical in its economic proposals but it has always been a mature and responsible union and a demanding yet reliable negotiating partner.
Numsa has been the ANC’s and government’s fiercest critic regarding corruption, nepotism, cadre deployment, enrichment, selective black economic empowerment and expensive vanity projects.
If it is going to be more effective in opposing these evils as a political movement and an independent union, South Africa as a whole can only benefit.