Why bookies just love the US president
– Donald Trump is proving such a good source of income for British bookmakers that one bookie has a department solely devoted to bets related to the US president.
Interest in political betting has surged as successive votes around the world have rocked the establishment, with Trump’s victory last year against Hillary Clinton coming hot on the heels of Britain’s Brexit vote.
Joe Lee, head of Trump betting at Paddy Power, said at the Betting on Sports conference in London on Thursday: “The most popular are, will he be impeached? for which he is odds-on, and will he last the four years? We also have a market which asks, will France ask for the Statue of Liberty back.”
Lee said the odds on impeachment were unrealistically short. “(Odds of) 4/7 are an incredibly short price for a sitting president as it is an incredibly hard thing to do (to impeach a president).”
Lee, whose firm paid out £4 million (R71 million) to punters who backed Trump to beat Clinton in 2016, said the tycoon’s success had opened up the market for the next US presidential election to include some unlikely names.
“The fact that (Facebook co-founder) Mark Zuckerberg and (rapper) Kanye West are on the market prices list for the next US presidential election sums up the shake-up Trump’s election has had,” said Lee.
Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes, said his firm was also taking bets on many Trump-related issues, although they refuse bets on his assassination.
Shaddick agreed the odds on the impeachment of Trump were unrealistic and put it down to overreaction to news.
He added that there is a noticeable upsurge in betting when there is an anti-establishment candidate on the ticket in elections.
“If you compare the French presidential election earlier this year and the forthcoming German one, we took a record amount on the former. The takings on it exceeded what we anticipated by three to four times because of the media interest in (far-right candidate) Marine Le Pen. The German election, we will barely take anything because Angela Merkel is seen as a shoo-in.”
But Lee and Shaddick agree the huge takings in the past two years on political events will diminish as there is little on the immediate horizon of interest. –
The most popular is, will he be impeached, for which he is odds-on, and will he last the four years?
Joe Lee Head of Trump betting at Paddy Power