Ramaphosa walking a tightrope

THE bluster around an unsigned memo from the diplomatic missions of Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, the US and the UK urging action on inter alia corruption might not have elicited a direct response in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation address.

This is despite a demarche, or diplomatic rebuke, from International Relations Minister Lindiwe Sisulu.

The ANC and SACP also came out guns blazing. Seldom heard rhetoric like “imperialist forces” and “latter day colonialists” feature in their hurried missives. It was a dreadful comedown for both the minister and the political grandees when it emerged the document was apparently at least a year old. The further denial from the diplomatic missions of any formal correspondence added to the embarrassment.

Reading deeper into the Sona one gets the distinct impression that the questions raised in the memo did elicit a veiled reaction. The lines that stand out is Ramaphosa’s appeal to be alert to the quantum of foreign direct investment. He gushed: “In 2017, we recorded an inflow of foreign direct investment amounting to R17 billion… just in the first three quarters of 2018, there was an inflow of R70 billion.”

This was clearly a quiet assurance to the “offending” governments – making up South Africa’s bigger and historic investors – that he was alert to their abiding interest in the country. Quite how this might have been received by South Africa’s new BFFs in BRICS, one cannot be certain. India, China and Russia have rapidly emerged with potential and demonstrable investor alternatives for South Africa.

The former two have pursued South Africa quite aggressively with bilateral hotlines puffing steam. The Russian way of doing business leaves aside diplomatic pleasantries as we saw in the heavy handed approach to the nuclear deal.

As the Zondo commission of inquiry into state capture unfolds we are likely to see further embarrassing revelations. Former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene implicated a number of other Cabinet colleagues who apparently put pressure on him to sign off the deal. His patriotic duty forced him to fend off the offending pressure.

In announcing additional investigative muscle to bolster the National Director of Public Prosecutions, Ramaphosa was making no bones about tightening the screws on alleged offenders. Looking at the flurry of action the past week and the search for a new Sars Commissioner, Ramaphosa is especially keen to send a strong signal that the institutions of state and government occupy priority on his agenda.

Since assuming office Ramaphosa has had to hold both party and state together. He has had to balance intraparty sensitivities against demands to act against, or fire those with skeletons in their closets in his ranks.

Amid these inevitable challenges, Ramaphosa has kept a steady hand on the wheel. His persona within the party has been affable but firm. His manner with foreign heads of state and multi-national corporations alike is one that evokes confidence and respect. A strong background in both political negotiation and the boardrooms of big business have given him an unparalleled skill.

In the responses to the Sona, the DA’s Mmusi Maimane predictably badgered him about acting against corruption in the ANC and Cabinet ranks.

Ramaphosa has demonstrated a firm intent to act but he has to balance that against a number of variables. His grip as ANC president is legitimate and credible but not unassailable.

Ramaphosa has earned considerable confidence at home and abroad but that can easily unravel. He played his hand very carefully with the memo from the foreign governments by neither responding belligerently nor meekly. He demonstrates a formidable skill in holding things together.

The diplomats have a far easier job. Whatever their intentions they may be they would be well advised to seek a quiet chat when they have a bee in their bonnets rather than resorting to unappreciated memoranda.

Buccus is senior research associate at ASRI, research fellow in the School of Social Sciences at UKZN and academic director of a university study abroad programme on political transformation