Broiler in­dus­try pro­duc­tion report

The Poultry Bulletin - - CONTENTS -

April 2015

Dis­claimer: in­for­ma­tion in this report re­flects as­sump­tions and also ac­tual data. The pro­jec­tions pre­sented in the report are based upon spe­cific pro­duc­tion stan­dards and in­di­cate his­toric and fore­casted trends only.

Any and all in­for­ma­tion, data, know-how, doc­u­men­ta­tion, ma­te­ri­als and other com­mu­ni­ca­tions, writ­ten or oral, which are dis­closed or pro­vided to SAPA or its de­signees by a SAPA mem­ber shall be re­garded as con­fi­den­tial in­for­ma­tion be­long­ing to that mem­ber and will not be dis­closed to any other mem­ber

Please Note:

The re­vised 2013 stan­dards were ap­plied in the broiler pro­duc­tion fore­cast­ing mod­els from Jan­uary 2013 on­wards and were fully im­ple­mented by Oc­to­ber 2013.

Two meth­ods are used to pro­duce the data sum­marised in this report:

Based on the num­ber of fe­male par­ent chicks placed, the fore­cast­ing model pre­dicts:

• The num­ber of 20-weekold par­ent hens that will be trans­ferred;

• The num­ber of hatch­ing

eggs that will be pro­duced;

• The num­ber of broiler

chicks that will hatch;

• The num­ber of broil­ers

that will be slaugh­tered.

• This in­for­ma­tion is deemed to re­flect the in­dus­try po­ten­tial. Based on the num­ber of day-old broiler chicks hatched as sup­plied by com­mer­cial hatch­eries, the model pre­dicts:

• The num­ber of broil­ers

that will be slaugh­tered.

• This in­for­ma­tion is deemed to re­flect the ac­tual pro­duc­tion and is re­garded as a true re­flec­tion of the in­dus­try per­for­mance.

• Com­par­isons are made

be­tween po­ten­tial and

ac­tual fig­ures as a means of val­i­dat­ing both the model as­sump­tions and the data sup­plied by the in­dus­try.

• The re­li­a­bil­ity of the model out­put is de­pen­dent on the sup­ply of ac­cu­rate monthly data from broiler hatch­eries and broiler breeder op­er­a­tions.

Ex­ec­u­tive Over­view: Broiler In­dus­try – April 2015

1. Broiler Breed­ers

Day-old par­ent pul­lets placed

An av­er­age of 202 200 day­old par­ent pul­lets was placed per week in April 2015.

• This is an in­crease of 17.1% com­pared to the previous month.

• This is an in­crease of 16.3% com­pared to the same month of the previous year. In to­tal 859 200 day-old par­ent pul­lets were placed in April 2015.

Broiler breeder flock

The av­er­age num­ber of breeder hens for the→

month un­der re­view was 6 632 400.

• This is a de­crease of 0.2% com­pared to the previous month.

• This is a de­crease of 0.1% com­pared to the same month of the previous year. The fore­cast for Au­gust 2015 is 6 736 500 breeder hens; a 1.6% in­crease on April’s fig­ure.

2. Broiler Chick Place­ments

Ac­tual place­ment:

Broiler hatch­eries pro­duced 21.09 mil­lion day-old chicks per week in April 2015.

• Com­pared to the previous month this is an 8.2% in­crease.

• Com­pared to the same month of the previous year this is a 4.9% in­crease. In to­tal 89.65 mil­lion broiler chicks were hatched dur­ing the month un­der re­view.

In­dus­try Po­ten­tial:

Based on the fore­cast­ing model, po­ten­tial pro­duc­tion of 20.38 mil­lion broiler chicks per week was pro­jected for April 2015. There is a dif­fer­ence of 3.5% be­tween ac­tual and po­ten­tial fig­ures.

3. Broiler Pro­duc­tion

Ac­tual pro­duc­tion:

18.77 mil­lion broil­ers were pro­duced per week in April 2015.

• This is 5.5% less than the

previous month.

• This is 2.8% more than the same month of the previous year.

A to­tal of 80.43 mil­lion broil­ers were pro­duced for slaugh­ter in the month un­der re­view.

In­dus­try Po­ten­tial:

Po­ten­tially 19.20 mil­lion broil­ers could have been pro­duced per week in April 2015. Ac­tual pro­duc­tion per week was 2.3% less.

Broiler Pro­duc­tion

Graph 1: Av­er­age num­ber of broil­ers slaugh­tered per week.

Graph 2: Ac­tual broil­ers pro­duced - av­er­age/week.

Graph 3: The monthly year on year move­ment in ac­tual weekly pro­duc­tion.

Graph 4: The to­tal num­ber of broil­ers slaugh­tered per an­num.

Graph 5: Year on year % change in sup­ply and price.

The PPI re­lated price refers to the STA­TIS­TICS SA PPI. It is not a di­rect mea­sure of poul­try PPI, but it is an in­di­ca­tor of gen­eral change in pro­duc­tion costs.

A % change > 0 in­di­cates growth in the cur­rent month com­pared to the same month of the previous year.

De­pop­u­la­tion of Lay­ers

Graph 6: Monthly de­pop­u­la­tion of broiler par­ent hens at 61 weeks of age.

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