Feed in­gre­di­ent re­port

Us­ing Septem­ber 2015 as a base with an out­look to July 2016 - Ex­ec­u­tive Sum­mary

The Poultry Bulletin - - CONTENTS -

All fore­casts of fu­ture feed in­gre­di­ents and fin­ished feed prices are based on the opin­ion of an in­de­pen­dent feed con­sul­tant con­tracted to SAPA. Th­ese fore­casts are for guide­line pur­poses only and SAPA does not, in any way, war­rant that th­ese pre­dic­tions will be re­alised. SAPA there­fore cau­tions any user of this in­for­ma­tion to treat it in an ap­pro­pri­ate man­ner.


The price of in­ter­na­tional maize has been very sta­ble for a long time trad­ing well un­der $4/bu, in De­cem­ber 2015. The USA har­vest is nearly fin­ished and the crop­size was even big­ger than an­tic­i­pated. World stock lev­els are also high so CBOT prices will not move too much go­ing for­ward, un­less we have sig­nif­i­cant crop dam­age in South Amer­ica. South Africa is cur­rently fac­ing pro­jected short­ages on es­pe­cially Yel­low Maize and im­ports are continuosly com­ing in through the lo­cal har­bors. There­fore lo­cal SAFEX prices will con­tinue trad­ing at im­port par­ity and will stay there as long as we have a nett short­age or very tight stocks. Tech­ni­cal buy­ing will there­fore be very im­por­tant.

Soya Meal has also been volatile in the last few months and we have seen highs at $300/short­ton for the old sea­son and are cur­rently trad­ing at un­der$ 300/short­ton on CBOT on De­cem­ber 2015 con­tracts for new sea­son prod­uct. New sea­son con­tracts on CBOT are trad­ing very much on the same lev­els at $290/st for the 1st half of 2016. Ar­gen­tine pre­mi­ums have on the other hand also weak­ened sig­nif­i­cantly and are cur­rently trad­ing at $7/short­ton for De­cem­ber 2015. The view is still that Soya prices will be trad­ing side­ways for some time.

The Rand con­tin­ues weak­en­ing and is cur­rently trad­ing at R14,00 and weaker. The for­ward prospects of the Rand do not look good and we will see a con­sis­tent weak­en­ing go­ing into 2016. The weak Rand has had a ma­jor im­pact on Soya Meal and Maize prices. On a Rand ba­sis Soya Meal prices are cur­rently trad­ing at be­tween R5500 and R5700/mt ex lo­cal crusher and the same lev­els ex Dur­ban Har­bour. The SAFEX DEC mar­ket is cur­rently trad­ing for Yel­low Maize at R3200/mt and White Maize at R3250/mt. Cur­rently we are see­ing no ex­ports of Yel­low Maize from SA, but ac­cord­ing to the last SAGIS num­bers, more than 450 000mt of Yel­low Maize has

been im­ported un­til the week of the 20th Novem­ber 2015. The in­for­ma­tion in the mar­ket is that im­ports have been fixed un­til Jan­uary 2016 and we should see im­ports con­tin­u­ing.

PLEASE NOTE: The as­sump­tions that were made, ma­jor fac­tors in­flu­enc­ing the lo­cal cost of raw ma­te­ri­als and other fac­tors taken into ac­count can be viewed in Ap­pen­dix A.

The full ver­sion of this re­port can be found on the SAPA web­site (www.sapoul­try. co.za)¡

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