IN­DUS­TRY

The Poultry Bulletin - - FRONT PAGE -

2011 to 2015

Please note that the broiler in­dus­try trends may not be re­li­able. A num­ber of broiler pro­duc­ers do not sub­mit monthly statis­tics and as­sump­tions there­fore have to be made to ac­count for miss­ing data.

1. Growth trends: Per­cent­age change vs pre­vi­ous year

1.1. Broiler in­dus­try trend

The broiler pro­duc­tion trend de­picted in Graph 1 in­di­cates that the growth in the broiler in­dus­try peaked at about 4.5% in April 2011 and grad­u­ally slowed down, dip­ping just be­low zero in the first half of 2013. Pos­i­tive growth re­sumed in 2014 and reached 5% in mid-2015. Yearon-year growth sub­se­quently slowed down in the sec­ond half of 2015. The broiler pro­duc­tion trend line is based on the ac­tual num­ber of day­old broiler chicks hatched per month as re­ported by broiler

hatch­eries. The monthly broiler chick data exhibits ex­treme vari­a­tions rang­ing from +14% to -13% be­tween con­sec­u­tive months and the trend in­di­cated in the graph there­fore has a poor fit to the ac­tual data (R²=0.12).

1.2. Egg in­dus­try trend (R²=0.95)

From a rel­a­tively low rate of three per­cent growth at the start of 2011, egg pro­duc­tion in­creased steeply to reach a year-on-year growth just be­low 12% by Septem­ber 2011. New breed stan­dards were phased into the fore­cast­ing model dur­ing 2011 and this would ac­count for some of the in­crease. This ex­ces­sive growth

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