2011 to 2015
Please note that the broiler industry trends may not be reliable. A number of broiler producers do not submit monthly statistics and assumptions therefore have to be made to account for missing data.
1. Growth trends: Percentage change vs previous year
1.1. Broiler industry trend
The broiler production trend depicted in Graph 1 indicates that the growth in the broiler industry peaked at about 4.5% in April 2011 and gradually slowed down, dipping just below zero in the first half of 2013. Positive growth resumed in 2014 and reached 5% in mid-2015. Yearon-year growth subsequently slowed down in the second half of 2015. The broiler production trend line is based on the actual number of dayold broiler chicks hatched per month as reported by broiler
hatcheries. The monthly broiler chick data exhibits extreme variations ranging from +14% to -13% between consecutive months and the trend indicated in the graph therefore has a poor fit to the actual data (R²=0.12).
1.2. Egg industry trend (R²=0.95)
From a relatively low rate of three percent growth at the start of 2011, egg production increased steeply to reach a year-on-year growth just below 12% by September 2011. New breed standards were phased into the forecasting model during 2011 and this would account for some of the increase. This excessive growth