Feed in­gre­di­ent re­port

Us­ing March 2017 as base with an out­look to Septem­ber 2017 - Ex­ec­u­tive Sum­mary

The Poultry Bulletin - - CONTENTS - T he full ver­sion of this re­port can be found on the SAPA web­site (www.sapoul­try.co.za), giv­ing the as­sump­tions that were made, ma­jor fac­tors in­flu­enc­ing the lo­cal cost of raw ma­te­ri­als and other con­sid­er­a­tions re­sult­ing in the feed and raw ma­te­rial price

All fore­casts of fu­ture feed in­gre­di­ents and fin­ished feed prices are based on the opin­ion of an in­de­pen­dent feed con­sul­tant con­tracted to SAPA. These fore­casts are for guide­line pur­poses only and SAPA does not, in any way, war­rant that these pre­dic­tions will be re­alised. SAPA there­fore cau­tions any user of this in­for­ma­tion to treat it in an ap­pro­pri­ate man­ner.

Sum­mary:

The price of in­ter­na­tional maize has been very sta­ble for a rea­son­able pe­riod of time and has been trad­ing be­tween $3.60/bu and $3.80/bu in the last few months for the May 17 con­tract on CBOT. The USA

has har­vested the big­gest ever crop in their his­tory. South Amer­ica crop prospects also look very good for 2017. World stock lev­els of maize are also in good shape. Im­ports are fin­ished and the lo­cal mar­ket has switched over to lo­cal SA maize. The prospects for 2017-2018 are look­ing very favourable for a big crop of 14,5 mil­lion mt and more and low maize prices com­pared to 2016-2017. We could see white maize be­ing used in an­i­mal feed for the 2017-2018 sea­son.

Soya meal prices have been sta­ble in the last few months trad­ing be­tween $310 and $325/short­ton. Soya meal is cur­rently trad­ing at un­der $315/short­ton for the May 17 con­tract on CBOT. World pro­duc­tion for soya is cur­rently at a good lev­els and stocks are com­fort­able.

The rand has had one of its most volatile moves in many years, peak­ing at R18/US$ and is cur­rently trad­ing at about R13.35/US$. The for­ward prospects of the rand is a trad­ing range be­tween R13.20 and R15/US$.

Ta­bles one to three are the es­ti­mated feed in­gre­di­ent prices and feed prices for March 2017, and a fore­cast to Septem­ber 2017 for feed in­gre­di­ent prices. Charts one and two show the his­tor­i­cal es­ti­mated feed prices from Jan 2007 to March 2017, with a fore­cast to Septem­ber 2017; charts 3 and 4 cover the same pe­riod for yel­low maize and soya oil­cake.¡

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