Broiler pro­duc­tion re­port for April 2017

The Poultry Bulletin - - CONTENTS -

April 2017

Dis­claimer: In­for­ma­tion in this re­port re­flects as­sump­tions and also ac­tual data. The pro­jec­tions pre­sented in the re­port are based upon spe­cific pro­duc­tion stan­dards and in­di­cate his­toric and fore­casted trends only.

A fore­cast­ing model is used to pre­dict in­dus­try po­ten­tial data and ac­tual pro­duc­tion, based on ei­ther the num­ber of fe­male par­ent chicks placed, or the num­ber of day-old broiler chicks hatched. The re­li­a­bil­ity of the model out­put is de­pen­dent on the sup­ply of ac­cu­rate monthly data from broiler hatch­eries and broiler breeder op­er­a­tions.

Thank you to our reg­u­lar con­trib­u­tors. Please re­fer to the full re­port on the SAPA web­site (www.sapoul­try.co.za) for fur­ther de­tail on the meth­ods used by the fore­cast­ing model and the broiler pro­duc­tion stan­dards used for pre­dic­tion.

1. Broiler Breed­ers Day-old par­ent pul­lets placed

An av­er­age of 175 800 day­old par­ent pul­lets was placed per week in April 2017 (Graph 1). This was an in­crease of 27 500 par­ent pul­lets (+18.5%) com­pared to the pre­vi­ous month and a de­crease of 16 900 par­ent pul­lets (-8.8%) com­pared to the same month of the pre­vi­ous year.

In to­tal 703 100 day-old par­ent pul­lets were placed in April 2017; this was a mon­thon-month in­crease of 35 700 par­ent pul­lets (+5.3%) and a year-on-year de­crease of 115 600 par­ent pul­lets (-14.1%).

Broiler breeder flock

The av­er­age num­ber of breeder hens for the month un­der re­view was 6.913 mil­lion (Graph 2). This was a de­crease of 36 700 hens (-0.5%) com­pared to March 2017, and a de­crease of 254 000 hens (-3.5%) com­pared to April 2016. The av­er­age age of the breeder flock was 40.4 weeks.

By July 2017 the breeder flock is ex­pected to com­prise 6.610 mil­lion hens; a 4.4% de­crease on April’s fig­ure. The av­er­age num­ber of breeder hens for Jan­uary to July of 2017 is fore­casted to be 6.872 mil­lion.

2. Broiler Chick Place­ments

Ac­tual place­ment

Broiler hatch­eries pro­duced 19.898 mil­lion day-old chicks per week in April 2017 (Graph 3, dot­ted line). Com­pared to March 2017

this was an in­crease of 2.001 mil­lion chicks (+11.2%). Com­pared to April 2016 this was an in­crease of 0.804 mil­lion chicks (+4.2%).

In to­tal 79.592 mil­lion broiler chicks were hatched dur­ing the month un­der re­view.

In­dus­try po­ten­tial

Based on the fore­cast­ing model, po­ten­tial pro­duc­tion of 21.259 mil­lion broiler chicks per week was pro­jected for April 2017. Ac­tual pro­duc­tion was 1.361 mil­lion chicks (-6.4%) lower than the po­ten­tial fig­ure. Of great in­ter­est is the in­creas­ing gap be­tween po­ten­tial and ac­tual chick num­bers (Graph 3 - Note: Ac­tual place­ments (the dashed trend line) show to April 2017; po­ten­tial place­ments (based on the fore­cast­ing model) are given to July 2017). As the in­dus­try strug­gles to sur­vive, cut­backs in pro­duc­tion have been achieved by length­en­ing the rest pe­riod be­tween cy­cles and not set­ting all of the fer­tile eggs. Ex­ports for Jan­uary to April 2017 ac­counted for an av­er­age of only 3.6% of the dif­fer­ence be­tween the ac­tual and po­ten­tial fig­ure.

3. Broiler Pro­duc­tion Ac­tual pro­duc­tion

On av­er­age, 17.121 mil­lion broil­ers were pro­duced per week in April 2017 (Graph 4). This was 0.879 mil­lion birds (-4.9%) less than the pre­vi­ous month and 1.168 mil­lion birds (-6.4%) less than the same month of the pre­vi­ous year.

In to­tal 73.376 mil­lion broil­ers were pro­duced for slaugh­ter in the month un­der

re­view.

In­dus­try Po­ten­tial:

Po­ten­tially 20.551 mil­lion broil­ers per week were pro­jected for slaugh­ter in April 2017. Ac­tual pro­duc­tion per week was 16.7% less.

4. Broiler And Breeder Meat Pro­duc­tion

The fore­cast­ing model pre­dicted 2 750 tonnes would re­sult from the culling of breeder hens and cocks in April 2017. This was 420 tonnes (-13.2%) less than March 2017, and 30 tonnes (+1.0%) more than April 2016.

Ac­tual tonnes of broiler meat pro­duced in April 2017 was 136 600. This was 11 800 tonnes (-8.0%) less than March 2017, and 18 000 tonnes (-11.6%) less than April 2016. Ac­tual pro­duc­tion was 27 400 tonnes (-16.7%) less than that which was pre­dicted by the fore­cast­ing model for April 2017.

Broiler and breeder meat com­bined re­sulted in 139 400 tonnes in April 2017. Graph 5 il­lus­trates the mi­nor con­tri­bu­tion of the par­ent stock to over­all meat pro­duc­tion, and com­pares po­ten­tial (dot­ted line) to ac­tual broiler pro­duc­tion. All breeder sales are as­sumed to be live, whilst a broiler slaugh­ter weight of 1.8 kg, re­vised from 1.85 kg in July 2015, was used. To­tal broiler pro­duc­tion in­cludes all saleable of­fal.

5. Broiler Vol­ume And Price

Graph 6 shows the re­la­tion­ships be­tween year- on-year changes in vol­umes, pro­ducer price and the PPI de­flated price. A % change > 0 in­di­cates growth in the cur­rent month com­pared to the same month of the pre­vi­ous year.

It must be pointed out that the PPI, as pub­lished by STATS SA and used to cal­cu­late the de­flated price, is an in­di­ca­tor of the gen­eral change in pro­duc­tion costs in South Africa, not specif­i­cally poul­try costs.

Neg­a­tive growth in sup­ply is usu­ally fol­lowed by pos­i­tive growth in prices, as seen on the graph at the start and to­wards the end of 2013. The lo­cal in­dus­try has grown for much of 2014 and 2015 and this has caused a down­ward trend in year-on-year pro­ducer price in­creases. Th­ese have been pos­i­tive since Fe­bru­ary 2013, only dip­ping into the neg­a­tive from March 2016 to July 2016, be­fore re­cov­er­ing in Au­gust 2016 and con­tin­u­ing to gain strength into April 2017.

The PPI de­flated price (the brown dot­ted line on Graph 6) is a mea­sure of real pro­ducer price in­creases with­out the ef­fect of inflation. Broiler pro­duc­ers en­joyed pos­i­tive growth in the pro­ducer price from Oc­to­ber 2014 to Oc­to­ber 2015. This trend be­gan to change in late 2015 and re­mained neg­a­tive un­til Novem­ber 2016, where it re­cov­ered in De­cem­ber 2016 and is see­ing a strong pos­i­tive growth into April 2017.

Any and all in­for­ma­tion, data, know-how, doc­u­men­ta­tion, ma­te­ri­als and other com­mu­ni­ca­tions, writ­ten or oral, which are dis­closed or pro­vided to SAPA or its de­signees by a SAPA mem­ber shall be re­garded as con­fi­den­tial in­for­ma­tion be­long­ing to that mem­ber and will not be dis­closed to any other mem­ber.¡

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