Broiler production report for April 2017
Disclaimer: Information in this report reflects assumptions and also actual data. The projections presented in the report are based upon specific production standards and indicate historic and forecasted trends only.
A forecasting model is used to predict industry potential data and actual production, based on either the number of female parent chicks placed, or the number of day-old broiler chicks hatched. The reliability of the model output is dependent on the supply of accurate monthly data from broiler hatcheries and broiler breeder operations.
Thank you to our regular contributors. Please refer to the full report on the SAPA website (www.sapoultry.co.za) for further detail on the methods used by the forecasting model and the broiler production standards used for prediction.
1. Broiler Breeders Day-old parent pullets placed
An average of 175 800 dayold parent pullets was placed per week in April 2017 (Graph 1). This was an increase of 27 500 parent pullets (+18.5%) compared to the previous month and a decrease of 16 900 parent pullets (-8.8%) compared to the same month of the previous year.
In total 703 100 day-old parent pullets were placed in April 2017; this was a monthon-month increase of 35 700 parent pullets (+5.3%) and a year-on-year decrease of 115 600 parent pullets (-14.1%).
Broiler breeder flock
The average number of breeder hens for the month under review was 6.913 million (Graph 2). This was a decrease of 36 700 hens (-0.5%) compared to March 2017, and a decrease of 254 000 hens (-3.5%) compared to April 2016. The average age of the breeder flock was 40.4 weeks.
By July 2017 the breeder flock is expected to comprise 6.610 million hens; a 4.4% decrease on April’s figure. The average number of breeder hens for January to July of 2017 is forecasted to be 6.872 million.
2. Broiler Chick Placements
Broiler hatcheries produced 19.898 million day-old chicks per week in April 2017 (Graph 3, dotted line). Compared to March 2017
this was an increase of 2.001 million chicks (+11.2%). Compared to April 2016 this was an increase of 0.804 million chicks (+4.2%).
In total 79.592 million broiler chicks were hatched during the month under review.
Based on the forecasting model, potential production of 21.259 million broiler chicks per week was projected for April 2017. Actual production was 1.361 million chicks (-6.4%) lower than the potential figure. Of great interest is the increasing gap between potential and actual chick numbers (Graph 3 - Note: Actual placements (the dashed trend line) show to April 2017; potential placements (based on the forecasting model) are given to July 2017). As the industry struggles to survive, cutbacks in production have been achieved by lengthening the rest period between cycles and not setting all of the fertile eggs. Exports for January to April 2017 accounted for an average of only 3.6% of the difference between the actual and potential figure.
3. Broiler Production Actual production
On average, 17.121 million broilers were produced per week in April 2017 (Graph 4). This was 0.879 million birds (-4.9%) less than the previous month and 1.168 million birds (-6.4%) less than the same month of the previous year.
In total 73.376 million broilers were produced for slaughter in the month under
Potentially 20.551 million broilers per week were projected for slaughter in April 2017. Actual production per week was 16.7% less.
4. Broiler And Breeder Meat Production
The forecasting model predicted 2 750 tonnes would result from the culling of breeder hens and cocks in April 2017. This was 420 tonnes (-13.2%) less than March 2017, and 30 tonnes (+1.0%) more than April 2016.
Actual tonnes of broiler meat produced in April 2017 was 136 600. This was 11 800 tonnes (-8.0%) less than March 2017, and 18 000 tonnes (-11.6%) less than April 2016. Actual production was 27 400 tonnes (-16.7%) less than that which was predicted by the forecasting model for April 2017.
Broiler and breeder meat combined resulted in 139 400 tonnes in April 2017. Graph 5 illustrates the minor contribution of the parent stock to overall meat production, and compares potential (dotted line) to actual broiler production. All breeder sales are assumed to be live, whilst a broiler slaughter weight of 1.8 kg, revised from 1.85 kg in July 2015, was used. Total broiler production includes all saleable offal.
5. Broiler Volume And Price
Graph 6 shows the relationships between year- on-year changes in volumes, producer price and the PPI deflated price. A % change > 0 indicates growth in the current month compared to the same month of the previous year.
It must be pointed out that the PPI, as published by STATS SA and used to calculate the deflated price, is an indicator of the general change in production costs in South Africa, not specifically poultry costs.
Negative growth in supply is usually followed by positive growth in prices, as seen on the graph at the start and towards the end of 2013. The local industry has grown for much of 2014 and 2015 and this has caused a downward trend in year-on-year producer price increases. These have been positive since February 2013, only dipping into the negative from March 2016 to July 2016, before recovering in August 2016 and continuing to gain strength into April 2017.
The PPI deflated price (the brown dotted line on Graph 6) is a measure of real producer price increases without the effect of inflation. Broiler producers enjoyed positive growth in the producer price from October 2014 to October 2015. This trend began to change in late 2015 and remained negative until November 2016, where it recovered in December 2016 and is seeing a strong positive growth into April 2017.
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