What ‘re­li­able’ info on fu­ture stock move­ment?

The Star Early Edition - - OPINION & ANALYSIS -

IT SEEMS in­vestors’ thirst for re­li­able in­for­ma­tion on fu­ture stock move­ments pro­vides a ready mar­ket for fore­cast­ers. We are told that through his pre­science Jerome Levy sold his stocks be­fore the 1929 crash and his grand­son, who ap­par­ently has in­her­ited the skill of see­ing into the fu­ture, fore­saw the Oc­to­ber 2007 slump two whole months be­fore it hap­pened.

Sub­scribers to his Jerome Levy Fore­cast­ing Cen­tre, how­ever, are still wait­ing for the re­ces­sion he has been promis­ing since 2010 and the hy­per­in­fla­tion he was ex­pect­ing in the wake of quan­ti­ta­tive eas­ing. Now it seems we have to wait till 2015 ac­cord­ing to his lat­est fore­cast, and even then he is only promis­ing a 65 per­cent chance. Cyn­i­cal fore­cast­ers, such as he and the fa­mous Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini, know the pub­lic for­gets fail­ures quickly and that if an event is fore­cast for long enough it will even­tu­ally hap­pen, and credit can then be claimed. SYD­NEY KAYE CAPE TOWN

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